Category: 2021

Defending the Indefensible

Talar Tumanian
The Portugal News
Jan 8 2021
By Gwynne Dyer, in Opinion · 08-01-2021

The dispute was about territory – borders that were drawn almost a century ago by a Russian dictator, Joseph Stalin – and Azerbaijan had lost the last war and a lot of land.

So the Azerbaijanis spent a lot of money (they have oil), bought some key weapons (cheap Turkish-built drones), and took most of the land back. Human cost: around 5,000 dead on both sides, and a great many refugees. But at least it was about something real.

Now the United Kingdom is keen to buy some of those Turkish TB-2 drones, because they’re dead cheap ($1-2 million per copy), and they are very good at killing tanks. Armenia lost 224 tanks; Azerbaijan lost 36. But whose tanks is Britain planning to kill? Russia’s?

It’s 2,500 km.from London to Moscow, and most of the countries in between are part of the same NATO alliance that the UK belongs to. NATO countries have six times the population of Russia and ten times the GDP – and by the way, there are no territorial disputes between NATO countries and Russia. What are they all playing at?

You can see the same irrationality in the current weapons-grade squabble between the US Congress and the White House over next year’s defence budget. It is $740 billion, or $2,235 for each American man, woman or child.

That is more than the defence budgets of the next ten biggest-spending countries combined, although there is no evidence that the US government fears a simultaneous attack by Russia, China, India, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea.

Indeed, none of those national capitals is less than 5,000 km. away from the United States, and most of the distance in every case is open ocean. Only Mexico and Canada are physically able invade the United States, and either could be stopped with a few harsh words, or at worst by the highway patrol.

But what about nuclear weapons? We haven’t time to get into the arcane philosophy of nuclear deterrence, and fighting a nuclear war would actually be national suicide, so let’s just ignore the whole US nuclear establishment. The nuclear stuff in the US defence budget costs $98 billion, so how do you justify the other $642 billion?

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell explained that the disputed defence appropriations bill “will cement our advantage on the seas, on land, in the air, in cyberspace and in space,” but you have to ask: an advantage that enables the United States to do what?

Stay in Afghanistananother year? The US couldn’t win there in nineteen years, but just one more year will do the trick? Deter China from militarising some reefs in the South China Sea? Well, not so much deter the Chinese (for the airstrips are going ahead on those reefs – China is also playing the ‘Great Game’), as harass and annoy them about it.

You can see why Armenia and Azerbaijan spend money preparing for war, but for the great powers it’s just silly. They have no disputes worth going to war for, and conquering any of them has been out of the question since the advent of nuclear weapons 75 years ago. Why are they still doing it?

There is the ‘military-industrial complex’ in every developed country, of course: millions of jobs and billions in profits. But that still depends on a perception of threat, even if the threat isn’t really there. What really makes this nonsense plausible is a very ancient mindset.

In the 1960s an Americananthropologist, Napoleon Chagnon, went to the Brazilian Amazon to study the Yanomamo, some 25,000 ‘horticulturalists’ (slash-and-burn agriculture plus hunting) living in many villages of around a hundred people each. Each village was absolutely independent, completely responsible for its own survival – and always potentially at war with every other village.

There was enough land and food for them all, and nothing to be gained by grabbing more territory. In fact, they left huge buffer zones between the villages to discourage raiding.

They invited other villagesto feasts, intermarried, traded with one another, made complicated alliances, all in order to shrink the risk of the chronic, devastating wars that could annihilate whole villages. And still the wars happened.

So the only safety lay in being heavily armed and implacably ready to take revenge, even though there was really nothing at stake that was worth fighting about. Deterrence, in other words.

It’s exactly the same for today’s great powers, even though the ministers for war and secretaries of state for defence no longer wear feathers in their hair and bones in their noses. Except on State occasions, of course.

National Geographic: In Nagorno-Karabakh, people grapple with war’s aftermath and COVID-19

Ani Tigranian
The National Geograhic
Jan 8 2021
 
 

By Kristen Chick
Photographs by Anastasia Taylor-Lind

PUBLISHED January 8, 2021

Two decades ago, Khanum and Volodya Grigoryan planted a pear tree in their new garden as they started over for the second time.

In 1988, they’d fled a violent backlash against ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan and settled in neighboring Armenia. They waited as a war raged between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region in southwestern Azerbaijan populated primarily by Armenians. The conflict ended with Armenians seizing control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts, including Kalbajar (known as Karvachar to Armenians). All of Kalbajar’s Azerbaijani inhabitants—some 60,000 people—were expelled, and ethnic Armenians, including Khanum and Volodya, moved in.

(How the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been shaped by past empires.)

 

The couple built their house on a former resident’s foundation, gradually adding comforts like electricity and plumbing. The pear tree grew and bore fruit. Khanum filled the shelves of her small kitchen with preserves from the garden, and they painted the walls of their sitting room turquoise. Behind their home, on a rocky hillside jutting toward the sky, the crumbling remains of an abandoned house served as a reminder of the valley’s previous Azerbaijani occupants.

The couple expected to stay there for the rest of their lives. But war broke out again in September 2020, and this time, Azerbaijan prevailed. Under a Russian-mediated ceasefire, Armenia agreed to return territories it seized in the first Nagorno-Karabakh war to Azerbaijan, including Kalbajar. In November, Khanum, 60, and Volodya, 61, packed up their lives once more. All around them, neighbors did the same. Woodcutters swarmed the hillsides, harvesting as much as they could from the land before it changed hands. When they came for the pear tree, Volodya stopped them. He still held on to the hope that he and Khanum might stay. “Forget about it,” his wife told him. “It’s over.”

The couple’s relatives and friends loaded what possessions they could fit into the back of a truck: a worn mustard-colored sofa; the jars Khanum used to pickle cauliflower; the wood-burning stove that heated their home. They dug up her roses, packing the roots into plastic water jugs. She supervised from the doorway, squinting behind her rectangular eyeglasses and barking instructions. When they had finished, she fed them a lunch of bread, cheese, and homemade vodka.

"Let's drink to our heroes," she said, as they all raised their glasses. "They killed so many of our young people in the war. I just want peace. Armenians have always been suffering from this."

Volodya locked the door for the last time. They were homeless once again.

The six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan killed more than 5,000 people, displaced tens of thousands more, and, on top of all that, unleashed an uncontrolled outbreak of COVID-19, illustrating what an ugly breeding ground war can be for the virus. And the ceasefire did not even resolve the long-running conflict. While thousands of Azerbaijanis who’d been displaced in the 1990s will now be able to return to what is left of their homes, thousands of Armenians are now being forced from theirs. The Armenians worry about the preservation of their cultural heritage in the territory returned to Azerbaijan—as well as the preservation of their own future in a land where they’ve lived for generations.

The roots of the strife go back more than a century to the end of the Ottoman and Russian empires, but the modern conflict began in the last years of the Soviet Union. Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous region of the Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, but in 1988, its majority Armenian population demanded to join the Soviet republic of Armenia instead. As the Communist confederation broke apart, the dispute grew into a war that killed between 20,000 and 30,000 people, and eventually displaced more than a million people, the majority of them Azerbaijanis. Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself an independent republic, a designation Azerbaijan and the rest of the world have never recognized. After a ceasefire in 1994, the conflict remained frozen, flaring up in occasional clashes.

(These teens are fighting a war older than they are.)

When the conflict erupted again on September 27, 2020, the world was distracted and consumed with the COVID pandemic. Azerbaijan crippled Armenia’s defenses with drone attacks, and launched artillery attacks on civilian areas, including Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital. Armenian forces targeted civilian areas in Azerbaijan with rocket attacks.

Within weeks, more than half of Nagorno-Karabakh’s population of 150,000 fled to Armenia. Across Stepanakert, the branches of persimmon trees were heavy with orange fruit that went unharvested. Windows were fortified with sandbags and tape, and the wail of sirens and subsequent booms of shelling became a familiar soundtrack. Those who remained in the city took refuge in the city’s crowded basements. There, they were vulnerable to COVID.

Before the war started, Nagorno-Karabakh had managed to keep the virus in check with border controls, contact tracing, and strict isolation of cases, even while the numbers rose in neighboring Armenia. Gayane Mkrtchyan, a nurse at the Republican Medical Center, Stepanakert’s main hospital, received special training for caring for COVID patients in the summer. She wore full protective gear to treat them: mask, visor, gloves, goggles, and coveralls. After leaving the ward, she would shower. In July, health officials opened a new lab to test samples in Stepanakert, rather than sending them to Armenia.

But when the war began, preventive efforts such as contact tracing suddenly ceased, even as people crowded into basements. Testing became difficult, and doctors abandoned protocols as they struggled to deal with the wounded. Medical and military volunteers from Armenia, where cases increased eight-fold in the two months after the war’s start, surged across the border, bringing the virus with them. It spread like wildfire through the hospital, and through the population. “I’ve had COVID, all the doctors have had COVID, all the nurses have had COVID,” says Mher Musayelyan, the hospital’s director. Overwhelmed medical staff kept treating patients even when they were infected. About a week after the fighting started, Mkrtchyan had a fever and a cough. She didn’t take a COVID test, but she suspects she contracted the virus. “We couldn’t even lay down to sleep. We didn’t have enough people, so we had to keep working,” she says.


On a late afternoon in early November, Mkrtchyan was making the rounds to check on her patients in the city’s infectious disease clinic, which had become a makeshift COVID hospital when the main hospital was damaged in an Azerbaijani rocket attack. All the patients were elderly: Too old or too stubborn to flee, they were also some of the most vulnerable to COVID. Mkrtchyan shone like a beacon as she moved through the gloomy building in her powder-blue protective gown. Gone was the visor and the goggles. Sometimes she didn’t even wear a mask. “We don’t pay attention to procedures now,” she says. “Because we see all these horrible things, and we’re so stressed, we really consider [COVID] as a secondary concern.”

It was a mild fall day, and Mkrtchyan stepped outside for a break with two fellow nurses. Arina Sarkisyan, a tiny, bird-like woman, brought small cups of thick, dark coffee. Another handed out persimmons. The women shared a close bond—all three had sent their children to Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, as soon as the war began, and all three had husbands fighting on the front lines. They lived at the hospital, working almost nonstop and taking turns sleeping on small cots in a tiny room. They spoke of the hospital as their own front line. Mkrtchyan told her two daughters, whom she hadn’t seen since the war began, that if she or their father doesn’t come back, “You shouldn’t cry. You should be proud of us because you should know that your parents are heroes.”

Just a week later, Mkrtchyan and Sarkisyan had to evacuate the clinic with 10 minutes’ notice. Azerbaijani forces had entered Şuşa, known to Armenians as Shushi, the mountain city overlooking the capital, and residents fled Stepanakert in a panicked rush. Sarkisyan had no time to take any of her belongings. She rode in an ambulance with five wounded soldiers, treating their injuries on the road.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan soon agreed to a Russian-mediated ceasefire, with terms that so enraged the Armenian populace they flooded the streets of Yerevan in protest. Azerbaijan would keep the territory in Nagorno-Karabakh it gained in the conflict, and Armenia would return the surrounding Azerbaijani districts, like Kalbajar, that its forces had captured in the 1990s. Russian troops quickly rolled in to enforce the accord.

Like many Armenians, Sarkisyan saw the deal as a surrender. “If Pashinyan was going to give up the land, he should have done it from the beginning, without killing our men in battle,” she says. Losing the surrounding Armenian-occupied districts made her feel vulnerable as they had provided a defensive buffer against Azerbaijan. With the memory of the Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Empire a century ago still potent, Turkey’s support of Azerbaijan stoked her fears, as did gruesome videos circulating on Telegram, a cloud-based messaging platform, purporting to show Azerbaijani soldiers beheading Armenians, mutilating corpses, and abusing captured soldiers. Amnesty International authenticated some of the videos, as well as others depicting Armenian forces engaged in abuses against Azerbaijanis. Rights groups accused forces on both sides of committing war crimes.

Though Azerbaijanis and Armenians had lived as neighbors in Nagorno-Karabakh until three decades ago, both sides now deny the other’s history and connection to the land. Many Armenians fear the destruction of their cultural heritage in the territory newly controlled by Azerbaijan. The fears are not unfounded: After the first war, Armenian cultural monuments including churches and graveyards were destroyed in Azerbaijan’s exclave Nakhichevan; Azerbaijani mosques and graveyards were damaged in Nagorno-Karabakh; and the entire Azerbaijani city of Aghdam was destroyed after Armenians captured it. During the most recent war, Azerbaijan bombed an Armenian cathedral in Şuşa twice, and videos showed it defaced with graffiti soon after the city’s capture by Azerbaijan.

Many Armenians feared what would happen to one of their most prized historical sites: the medieval monastery of Dadivank. Nestled in the side of a mountain in Kalbajar, the graceful stone churches at Dadivank, built over even older remains, are evidence of Armenians’ historical connection to the region.

On a cold morning in November, days before Kalbajar was to be handed over to Azerbaijan, hundreds of people thronged the monastery for what they feared could be the last time. Worshippers packed into a small, dark cathedral, jostling as they pushed their children toward the priest, who performed baptism after baptism. Outside, a woman ran her hand reverently over the medieval Armenian script carved into the stone. Young people waited in line to take pictures with two massive khachkars, the intricately carved stone crosses used by Armenians since the medieval period as memorials and monuments.


Suddenly, thick grey smoke billowed into the sky above the monastery, and a crowd gathered on the ridge next to the complex. Below, a house was burning. Its owner, the monastery’s guard, sat on a rock and wiped his tears with a blue rag. Like many others in the region, he had set his home alight rather than leave it for Azerbaijanis. But his tears were for the monastery, he said. “We can build new houses, but we cannot build a new Dadivank.”

The abbot, Father Hovhannes, tried to reassure the weeping pilgrims. “We are not going to leave. We are staying here,” he said. “This belongs to us. Never will it be separated from us. The [Azerbaijanis] don’t have the history, so we are not allowed to leave this to them.”

Despite his words, the following day workers were removing whatever they could. Outside the cathedral, a generator’s roar echoed off the stone walls, its cord snaking in through the heavy wood door. The clatter of machinery echoed from inside, where workers said they were removing frescoes. Two empty niches stood where the khachkars had been. The church’s bell sat on a wooden pallet, waiting to be loaded into a truck. Russian peacekeeping troops arrived to safeguard the site, parking their armored vehicles at the entrance to the monastery.

As the truck carried the monastery’s treasures to Armenia, it passed dozens of plumes of smoke rising from houses on fire. In a graveyard in Kalbajar town, two graves had been dug up and the bodies removed. The road was clogged with trucks piled high with the belongings of those fleeing.

Heading in the opposite direction were busloads of people returning to Stepanakert, which remained in Armenian hands. The city was quietly coming back to life after the ceasefire went into effect on November 10. Elderly municipal employees raked up leaves grown thick in the center of roundabouts. Residents swept up their broken windows and began clearing the rubble from bombed houses. Mourners brought bright plastic flowers to rows of fresh graves at the military cemetery.

Sarikisyan returned, too. It wasn’t her choice—hospital employees were told to return to work or lose their jobs, she said. COVID cases were rising again as people brought the virus back with them from Armenia, and she was needed at work. She and her children, 11-year-old Narek and 12-year-old Mariam, boarded a bus for home.

Their ground-floor apartment was just as they had left it. A sheltered, west-facing garden caught the winter afternoon sun, and Narek ventured out to inspect the few green peppers that remained on the plants he’d grown from seed. A neighbor girl called down to him from a window and he grinned, happy to be home. But Sarikisyan was not sure how long they would stay. “We left with a happy heart, although it was war, because we thought we were protected,” she says. “But we came back broken, and very sad.”

No longer confident of a future for her children here, she says she will begin looking for a way out—maybe Armenia, or Russia. Many of her friends were doing the same. “It’s dangerous here,” she says. “What’s next? We don’t know what will happen next.”

Kristen Chick is a writer based in the UK. Her work focuses on gender, conflict, and migration. Follow her on Twitter @kristenchick.

Anastasia Taylor-Lind is an English-Swedish photojournalist covering issues relating to women, war and violence. She is a National Geographic photographer, a TED fellow and a 2016 Harvard Nieman fellow. She has previously worked in Nagorno-Karabakh, reporting on the Birth Encouragement Program, which gives cash payments for each baby born in the region, along with additional social support for large families. To see more of her work, follow her on Instagram.

See all photos at the link below: 
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2021/01/nagorno-karabakh-people-grapple-war-aftermath-covid/

After Brutal War, Armenia’s Christians Say Birth of Christ Gives Them Hope for ‘Rebirth of Our Nation and Our Dreams’

Toneyan Mark
Jan 8 2021
01-08-2021
Chuck Holton


ARMENIA – In October, fighting broke out between two former Soviet-held countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The short war resulted in more than 5,000 dead and 100,000 displaced. 

A cease-fire ended the fighting in November, but Armenia has been wracked by ongoing strife since then. 

Now it's winter in Armenia. The cold weather might be brutal, but the citizens of this historically Christian nation make it through by drawing on warm traditions of faith and family. 

The first recorded celebration of Christmas was in the year 336 AD when the Roman emperor Constantine declared December 25th would be celebrated as the day of Christ's birth. But more than 30 years earlier, Armenians were commemorating the birth of Christ on a different day – January 6th. And it's still celebrated that way here today.

"We celebrate Christmas on the eve of Christmas, the night of January 5th, and that's when we celebrate the candlelight liturgy and that's when we announce the birth of the Christ," said Armenian worshipper Seda Grigorian. "And the next day, in the morning January 6 again we have liturgies all over, at churches all over the world."
 
More than 95% of Armenians claim Christianity, and so religious holidays like this one are very important here, following the traditions passed down by the Armenian Apostolic Church for millennia.

The Hagartsin Monastery is located in the northern part of Armenia in a town called Dilijan. And Christians here have been celebrating Christ's birth in this spot for over 1,000 years. This year's celebration is a little subdued, and there's a reason for that. CBN News talked to one of the priests here to find out why. 

Bishop Bagrat Galstanyan, Primate of the Tavush Diocese, Armenian Apostolic Church noted, "It's about our existence, our identity, everything." 

Galstanyan is not talking about the Armenian church, though that is central to life here in Armenia. He's talking about their homeland, part of which was just lost in a short but intense conflict with their eastern neighbor, Azerbaijan. Starting in September 2020, the Azeri army moved in to take over lands where Armenians have lived for thousands of years, and the loss is deeply felt among the people here.

"It's traumatic, let's say, and we still need time to truly analyze and understand what happened to us and why it happened, and make a strong commitment for revival," Bishop Galstanyan said. 

"This year we are not celebrating the holidays, the New Years' and Christmas, in a festive way because as you know Armenia was hit by a devastating war in 2020, which left us with heavy losses," said Grigorian. "We lost our historic lands."

Normally the capital city of Yerevan is heavily decorated with lights for the Christmas season, but this year between the COVID virus and the war, the mood is subdued. Nevertheless, these worshippers are putting their faith in God for the future.

"This is a moment of mourning. This is a moment of reflection," Grigorian explained. "And this is a moment of also appreciating what we have, and also the birth of Christ is also allowing us to think about the rebirth of our nation and of our dreams, and hopefully being able to stand up again and protect our land."

The 44-Day War: Democracy Has Been Defeated by Autocracy in Nagorno-Karabakh

Babken Chilingarian
Modern Diplomacy
Jan 8 2021
January 8, 2021                   

By Anush Ghavalyan

The people of Artsakh are seen as pro-Russian. Is this Pro-Moscow assessment of people of Artsakh accurate, and why Russian peacekeepers are welcomed in Nagorno-Karabakh?

***

The Republic of Artsakh and its people developed the nation’s democracy for approximately three decades. Back in 1991, Artsakh held a referendum on its independence, as well as democratic elections under a barrage of Azerbaijani rockets. The people of Artsakh accomplished this step by themselves, being convinced that without freedom of the individual, there is no freedom for the country. The Artsakh National Liberation Movement was nothing but a struggle for freedom and the right to decide one’s own destiny.

The development of democracy was not easy for a war-torn country with ade-facto status, limited resources, lack of institutions, combined with the threat of resumption of hostilities and the temptation of using elements of authoritarianism in governance as well as in the public mood. 

Nevertheless, during the last three decades, the people of Artsakh have managed to develop working democratic institutions, ensure political pluralism, and form effective human rights institutions. The vivid examples thereof are the 2020presidential elections held on a competitive basis, a 5-party Parliament, and the constitutional mechanisms for the separation of powers.

It is noteworthy that the full spectrum of democratization in Artsakh has been carried out by the country alone, without the direct support of international governmental and non-governmental organizations, and despite the numerous appeals by the civil society of Artsakh made to them.

However, Artsakh’s democracy has been highly regarded not only by parliamentarians, politicians and experts who have visited Artsakh, but also by the international organizations, such as Freedom House in its Freedom in the World annual reports. In these reports Artsakh is on the list of partly free countries, making progress in ensuring political and civil liberties each year, while Azerbaijan holds on to a not free status all the while making regressive steps in every aspect.

The people of Artsakh believed that the development of democracy would inevitably strengthen the position on unimaginability of any vertical relationship with dictatorial Azerbaijan. The people of Artsakh believed that they were keeping the eastern gate of the European civilization and its set of values. The people of Artsakh believed that those in West involved in the conflict settlement process, particularly France and the United States would view the Artsakh struggle with an understanding that it was created by their examples and ideals of freedom.

And what did the people of Artsakh receive as a result of believing in the West? They faced a new war and a new bloodshed unleashed by the same Azerbaijan. They also faced a harsh reality in the form of gross violations of human rights, war crimes and destruction of their cultural heritage. The principle of equality and self-determination of peoples in general, and the notions of freedom and human rights in particular completely collapsed before the eyes of the people of Artsakh.

One doesn’t have to be a military expert to understand that Artsakh, a small country with limited resources and capabilities, could not on its own resist Turkey-backed Azerbaijan for long, especially given the direct involvement of Turkish command staff and thousands of mercenaries from the Middle East terrorist organizations in the conflict, and the use of advanced military technology likethe banned weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

What did the people of Artsakh need to prevent this war? The answer would have been the de jure recognition of Artsakh that at least would have dampened the possibility of a new war, put an end to the century-old conflict, and establish long lasting peace and security in the region.

Instead of recognizing their unalienable right to self-determination, a new war was imposed on the people of Artsakh. As a result of this war, the people of Artsakh were left with a devastated country, thousands of dead and wounded compatriots, a new generation of refugees and IDPs, dependence on the peacekeeping mission for physical security, a “neither peace nor war” situation, as well as an uncertain future.

Russia wanted to come to Karabakh and so it did. Russia is in Artsakh not because the people of Artsakh were dreaming of weakened sovereignty while they continued to think of what West would do, but Russia came to Artsakh because Russia, unlike the West, acts rather than speaks. When on the one hand there are European and American concerns expressed in empty statements and on the other hand there are Russian peacekeepers and tanks, there is no room left for thinking long.

Let’s look at the values in which European Union, United States, Canada, and the rest of the so called “civilized world” believe in: the ideas of human rights and freedoms which they been advocating for years across the world. Now let’s try to see what is left from them all. Maybe once can find an inspiration for writing new books and sharing ideas about the future of humanity vis-à-vis the civilized world. Perhaps, in the European Union, in the United States, in Canada, and in the rest of the so called “civilized” world, their population may enjoy the ideals of human rights, but the people living in small and unimportant countries are often deprived of such rights. Perhaps the Western intellectuals and authors will write books on how the West left the faith of the people of Artsakh to the hands of the terrorists while empowering the Turkish-Azerbaijani dictators with their indifference and inaction. Indeed, for the West, the lives of the people of Artsakh are not valuable just because they are from a ‘gray’ zone, because they live in a country that doesn’t officially ‘exist’. These discriminatory phrases are definitions time and again used by the Western officials. It is what it is. The West, however, should not forget to celebrate Zero Discrimination Day and quote articles from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Later, when Turkish expansionism and terrorism will knock on the Western doors, the West will remember those unimportant people from an unrecognized country that absorbed the first blow. At that juncture, the West will also remember how it admired the people of Artsakh’s endurance and collective resistance, but at the same time left them alone in their fight against terrorism and modern military technology. Perhaps, for the West it is just like watching a fun action movie with popcorn and cola.

Having 193 or 194 member-countries in the United Nations (UN)as a result of recognition of Artsakh would not change the existing international legal order, however, it could serve a textbook example for rising democracies and a lesson for the dictatorships and international terrorism. By not recognizing the right of the people of Artsakh to self-determination, the West is burying the concepts of human rights, freedoms, and democracy, thereby paving a way for the next military-political adventures of dictators. The West should decide. The longer the West spends on thinking without any concrete action, the further the region will move away from it.

Armenia: protests over alleged Pashinyan-Aliev meeting, rumored territory surrender

Nyrie Kalashian
JAM News
Jan 8 2021

    JAMnews, Yerevan
  

For several days now, Armenia has been caught up in persistent discussions of a proposed meeting of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev that is to take place in Moscow. 

Telegram channels have even announced the date of the meeting – January 11, all despite the fact both of the sides are yet to confirm their attendance.  

Armenian media is also covering the meeting extensively, reporting on how preparation for the PM’s visit to Moscow is in full motion and reporting on the specific documents that Pashinyan is to sign. 

According to various reports, the documents that have allegedly already been sent to the Armenian Ministry of Justice include the following clauses:

  • a corridor will be opened through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan,
  • some territories of Armenia will be transferred to Azerbaijan,
  • Armenian troops will be withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh.

A picket near the Ministry of Justice demanding the authorities refute information ‘about the signing of another humiliating agreement with Azerbaijan’ was held earlier today.

Amidst the ongoing unrest, Nikol Pashinyan posted on his Facebook page about the priorities of Armenia and the order of implementation of the points of the trilateral agreement on the ceasefire in Karabakh signed with Azerbaijan on the night of November 10, 2020. His post was regarded by many as a response to the spreading rumours about the surrender of the territories and a corridor through Armenia to Nakhichevan.

  • The biggest headlines in Armenia in 2020
  • Everything known about Armenian PoWs in Azerbaijan

What the prime minister said

Nikol Pashinyan stated that the top priority for Yerevan is the full implementation of the 8th clause of the agreement – on the exchange of prisoners, hostages and detainees, as well as the bodies of the deceased. Only after that is fully set into motion would the Armenian authorities be ready to consider resuming the transport and economic communications in the region.

According to PM Pashinyan this would involve cargo transportation from Armenia to Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran via the territory of Azerbaijan, and transport communications from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan via the territory of Armenia.

“I, once again draw attention to the fact that the November 10 statement does not mention ‘corridor’, neither in relation to ‘Meghri’ nor to any other territory of Armenia.”

“The choice of communication routes from Armenia to Russia and from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan is a separate topic for negotiations, the effectiveness of which will depend heavily on the exchange of prisoners, hostages, other held persons, the bodies of the deceased, as well as the increasing of the scale and effectiveness of the search for those reported as missing”, wrote the Armenian PM. 

Unrest at the Ministry of Justice

Former Deputy Minister of Justice and the head of human rights organization, Legal Way, Ruben Melikyan made an urgent appeal to organise a picket outside of the Ministry of Justice building.

He commented on Nikol Pashinyan’s post, specifically on the part of it that mentions the trilateral agreement on Karabakh which does not contain words ‘Meghri’ or ‘corridor’ going through the territory of Armenia. According to Melikyan, the same document does not say anything about the Armenian village of Shurnukh, but “the enemy had reached it too.”

The human rights activist was referring to approximately 12 houses in Shurnukh village of the Syunik region of Armenia that were transferred to Azerbaijan on January 5 in the process of redrawing the borders between the countries.

Melikyan called on the authorities to officially refute the information that on January 11th “it is planned to sign another humiliating agreement with Azerbaijan.”

As a result, Minister of Justice, Rustam Badasyan came out to the protesters and assured them that there were no “secret agreements” made with Azerbaijan:

“I reaffirm that the Ministry of Justice holds no agreements with Azerbaijan, and any speculations about it are completely false.”

Badasyan urged the public not to trust the telegram channels, as in recent years, disinformation has often been spread to cause panic among the residents of the country.

Ombudsman: Armenian PoWs should be released and returned without any preconditions

Varazdat Torgomian
Panorama, Armenia
Jan 8 2021

Armenia’s Human Rights Defender (Ombudsman) Arman Tatoyan has commented on the issue of Armenian PoWs held in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's attempts to exploit the humanitarian matter for political purposes. In a statement posted on Facebook, Tatoyan said: 

"1. Armenian servicemen captured and held prisoners by the Azerbaijani military must be released and returned to Armenia. This must be done immediately and without any preconditions.

2. It is absolutely impermissible that Section 8 of the Tripartite Declaration of November 10, 2020 does not specify a date for the exchange or return of the prisoners of war or others who are otherwise detained and are held in captivity.

But this does not mean that it is permissible for Azerbaijani authorities to continue violating international human rights standards and humanitarian agreements. The return of the prisoners of war is artificially delayed; the accurate numbers are not disclosed; and, even attempts are made to present a smaller number than the real number. All the while, the torture and inhumane treatment of these prisoners continue to take place, as evidenced by the purposeful publication of videos attesting to that; and, the recovery of the bodies of the deceased are being circumvented.

I have already stated that the studies, complaints addressed to Armenia’s Human Rights Defender, reports, as well as  24/7 of the Defender’s Office confirm that these acts are aimed at causing mental suffering to the families of those still in captivity, intended as a means of playing with the emotions of the Armenian society, and aimed at causing Ans raising tensions in our country.

3. The statements of the Azerbaijani authorities that they are not prisoners of war, but rather, they are terrorists who have been arrested, grossly violate the post-war humanitarian processes and international human rights requirements. These statements are in direct contradiction with the requirement of Section 8 of the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020.

They are “Prisoners of War” by status, period!

Similarly, all these demands and adherence must also apply to the exchange of the bodies of victims and for the search and rescue of those who are still missing.

4. The Human Rights Defender of Armenia considers absolutely condemnable the politicization of this humanitarian and human rights issue, and even remotely connecting these matters of human rights related to any territorial issue, or for that matter, the obvious attempts of the Azerbaijani authorities to exploit these matters for political purposes." 

 

Turkish press: Turkey’s military technology contributes to regional peace, Parliament Speaker Şentop says

Kajoyan Gevork
 ISTANBUL DIPLOMACY 
JAN 08, 2021 1:02 PM GMT+3
A Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone is pictured at Geçitkale military air base near Famagusta (Gazimağusa) in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Dec. 16, 2019. (AFP File Photo)

The military technology developed by Turkey has the potential to change the concept of conflicts and wars in the world, Parliament Speaker Mustafa Şentop said Friday, in reference to Turkey’s contributions to the establishment of peace amid conflicts in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Speaking at a symposium jointly organized by Istanbul and Marmara universities on the power balance in the southern Caucasus region, Şentop said Turkey’s contributions have changed the balances of power in several conflicts.

Noting that he personally visited the Azerbaijani city of Ganja, where the Armenian military committed human rights violations, Şentop said Turkey has been supporting Azerbaijan in its rightful cause as Nagorno-Karabakh is an internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.

Şentop continued by saying that Turkey not only stood beside Azerbaijan but has also maintained a determined stance to protect regional peace.

Referring to George P. Schultz’s quote, “Negotiations are a euphemism for capitulation if the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table,” Şentop said negotiations only became effective after Azerbaijan obtained military power through the use of technology.

Analysts have drawn attention to the effectiveness of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the field, particularly drone swarms used against air defense systems and battle tanks as seen in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan.

A Moscow-brokered truce was reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan, after more than six weeks of deadly clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that lies within Azerbaijan but has been illegally occupied by ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a separatist war there ended in 1994. Following the truce, Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, acknowledged that "had the hostilities continued at the same pace, we would have lost all of Artsakh (an Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh) within days.”

The truce came days after Azerbaijan pressed its offensive deeper into Nagorno-Karabakh and took control of the city of Shusha, strategically positioned on heights overlooking the regional capital of Khankendi (Stepanakert).

Turkish technologies also gave the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya the upper hand over putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar's forces.

The GNA made a formal request for "air, ground and sea" support from the Turkish military to help fend off an offensive by forces loyal to Haftar, who was attempting to take control of the capital, Tripoli. Turkey supports the GNA, which is also backed by the United Nations, against Haftar's militias and mercenaries.

Regarding the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, Şentop said the country needs to solve its problems in line with democracy and the law.

“Everybody in the U.S. needs to embrace democracy and the law,” Şentop said, adding that the elections need to be completed in line with the procedures and framework.

A group of pro-Donald Trump protesters stormed the Capitol building on Wednesday after the president urged his supporters to overturn the results of the Nov. 3 elections. The protesters forced senators and representatives to evacuate the building as they looted it.

Turkish press: One remanded over Dink murder case of 2007

Boris Nahapetian
  • 09:00:19

Turkish security authorities on Jan. 7 remanded Veysal Şahin, a former intelligence officer, following a court ruling related to the killing of a prominent Armenian-Turkish journalist Hrant Dink.

Heavy Penal Court no.14 in Istanbul Wednesday found Veysal Sahin and Volkan Sahin guilty of knowing the murder beforehand and issued arrest warrants for both, adding that they had "spent a short time under detention".

The security authorities then arrested Veysal Sahin in Turkey's southern Adana province and referred him to a courthouse from which he was later sent to jail.

Dink, then-editor-in-chief of the Armenian-Turkish daily Agos, was killed outside his office on Jan. 19, 2007.

Turkish press: ‘Turkey’s military power changes concept of war’

Jirair Kafian
Guc Gonel and Kenan Irtak   |08.01.2021

ISTANBUL 

Turkey's military facilities and technologies have the potential to change the concept of war and conflict in the world, the country's parliament speaker said in Istanbul on Friday.

Speaking at a symposium on South Caucasus and the Karabakh conflict, Mustafa Sentop said the potential of Turkey's military facilities and technology was partially demonstrated in Syria and Libya, and more recently "very clearly" in Azerbaijan during the second Nagorno-Karabakh war.

When new clashes erupted on Sept. 27 last year, the Armenian army launched attacks on civilians and Azerbaijani forces and violated several humanitarian cease-fire agreements. During the 44-day conflict, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and nearly 300 settlements and villages from the nearly three-decade occupation.

Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 armed drones purchased by Baku played a significant role in Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh.

Although the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been settled with the Moscow-brokered cease-fire, he said, the conflicts in the South Caucasus, around Turkey and across the world have not ended yet.

Sentop recalled that top Turkish officials paid a visit to Azerbaijan during the war and expressed their support to the brotherly country.

Historical, legal Azerbaijani land

The Turkish speaker underlined that the Nagorno-Karabakh area has always been considered a historical Azerbaijani territory.

No matter how far we go into history, he said, Nagorno-Karabakh was under Azerbaijani rule, both after the Iran-Russia agreement, in the beginning of the 19th century, and in the Constitution adopted in the Soviet Union period.

"In the Soviet period, there was no tendency, practice or legal regulation that Nagorno-Karabakh would have an administration outside the lands of Azerbaijan. In this respect, when we look back, we see that Nagorno-Karabakh is a land belonging to Azerbaijan historically," he said.

He went on to say that the same situation and justification was also actual from the legal perspective as four UN Security Council resolutions refer to Armenia as an invader in Azerbaijani territory.

"The negotiations, which have always been on the table for 30 years, have not come to a conclusion," he said, adding that the result was achieved when "finally the power of Azerbaijan" was shown.

"I would like to express that the steps that solve problems and contribute to world peace are very valuable. Turkey with its diplomatic interventions in many regions has clearly shown that it was in such a way," Sentop said.

Turkish press: Dynamic foreign policy awaits Turkey in 2021

Garik Boshkezenian
Ali Murat Alhas   |09.01.2021

ANKARA 

Turkey is set to have another busy foreign policy year in 2021 that is expected to be marked by multilateralism and flexibility. 

After an active 2020 with the country's humanitarian and proactive foreign policy, Turkish policy is likely to focus on prominent agenda items including developments in the Gulf and Middle East, as well as the new US administration, issues on Cyprus and the EU and Russia.

Signals coming from Turkey's diplomatic missions indicate Ankara is planning to prioritize diplomacy in its foreign policy once again, but will not refrain from taking action and using its "smart power" if the need arises.  

Gulf region reconciliation

The end of the Gulf Crisis — which began in 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain imposed a blockade on Qatar — is of great importance for Turkey, which has advocated dialogue since the eruption of the ordeal. The reconciliation process has the potential to affect Ankara's relations with regional actors, such as Riyadh and Cairo.

Turkey currently maintains contacts with Egypt via intelligence agencies and foreign ministries to improve bilateral ties, with both countries trying not to oppose each other on international platforms. Further, there are intentions in both countries to work on a "roadmap" to fix bilateral ties.

Relations between Ankara and Riyadh also appear to be in a positive dynamic. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's telephone call with Saudi King Salman bin Abdelaziz ahead of a G-20 Leaders Summit, as well as positive remarks on Turkey by Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, the Saudi foreign minister, indicate relations might improve in 2021.   

Biden era in US

Turkey and the US share deep historical bonds and stand as NATO allies. But, the two have yet to resolve issues that have emerged recently.

Some of the most thorny of these issues are the US support to the YPG — the Syrian offshoot of the PKK terror group that has killed tens of thousands of people in Turkey; free movement in the US of members of the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) which is behind a deadly failed coup attempt of 2016; the extradition of FETO ringleader Fethullah Gulen from the US; Ankara's procurement of Russian S-400 missile defense systems and sanctions imposed on Ankara as a result of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

While Turkey has signaled it is ready to continue relations with President-elect Joe Biden, who is set to take the presidency Jan. 20, and take essential steps to resolve those issues, the coming US administration has also pointed to the importance of ties with Turkey, a NATO ally and key regional actor. Both countries have agreed to establish a joint working group to discuss CAATSA sanctions.

In April 2017, when protracted efforts to buy an air defense system from the US proved futile, Turkey signed a contract with Russia to acquire its state-of-art S-400 missile shield.

US officials voiced opposition to their deployment, claiming they would be incompatible with NATO systems and would expose F-35 jets to possible Russian subterfuge.

Turkey, however, stressed that the S-400s would not be integrated into NATO systems, and poses no threat to the alliance or its armaments.

Turkish officials have repeatedly proposed a working group to examine the technical compatibility issue.  

Anticipation of 'positive agenda' with EU

Despite a tense period in EU-Turkey ties last year — partly due to the escalatory behavior of some member countries — the two sides are expected to share a "positive agenda" in 2021.

EU Council President Charles Michel and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are set to visit Turkey, with the main issue up for discussion being the 2016 migration agreement, visa liberalization and updating of the Customs Union Agreement.

Turkey, which seeks to become a full member of the union as one of its strategic goals, has declared it would in the near future undertake reforms, which might contribute positively to relations with the bloc as Turkish-EU ties are expected to gain momentum in the new year.

As for developments during the past year in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey still favors a fair solution to the ongoing dispute in the region surrounding energy drilling rights; Brussels and Ankara are still working for a multilateral conference to tackle these disputes.

In another positive move, Turkey in late 2020 limited activities of one of its drilling vessels, the Oruc Reis, to the gulf its southern province Antalya.

Amid recent tensions in the region, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration increased pressure on other EU members to impose sanctions on Turkey during the EU leaders' summit Dec. 11.

Turkey, which has the longest continental coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, has rejected maritime boundary claims of Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration and stressed that the excessive claims violate the sovereign rights of both Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots.

Ankara has sent several drill ships in the recent weeks to explore for energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, asserting its own rights in the region, as well as those of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Turkish leaders have repeatedly stressed that Ankara is in favor of resolving all outstanding problems in the region through international law, good neighborly relations, dialogue and negotiation.
  

New roadmap with France

After Turkey's relations with EU member France soured recently, the two countries now appear to be moving toward normalization within the context of bilateral ties with members of the bloc.

Comments from political actors suggest parties are working on a "roadmap" and will re-establish relations.

In addition, Turkey has repeatedly said it was ready to sit at the negotiating table with Greece to resolve outstanding issues through exploratory talks.  

Alternative solution to Cyprus issue

Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) are currently pushing for a two-state solution to the dispute on Cyprus after talks for a federation model on the island have gone nowhere after 52 years.

The two-state solution proposal is expected to be discussed in 2021, under an unofficial 5+UN format.

The island of Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when a Greek Cypriot coup was followed by violence against the island's Turks and Ankara's intervention as a guarantor power.

It has seen an on-and-off peace process in recent years, including a failed 2017 initiative in Switzerland under the auspices of guarantor countries Turkey, Greece and the UK.

The TRNC was founded in 1983.

– Support for Azerbaijan to continue

One of the most significant developments in 2020 for Azerbaijan and its ally, Turkey, was the liberation of lands in the Upper Karabakh region that had remained under Armenian occupation for decades.

The relationship between the two countries, often dubbed as "one nation, two states," is set to make its mark in yet another year.

– Perspective of normalization with Israel

While Turkey and Israel have conducted their relations on the level of charge d'affaires instead of ambassadors since 2018, recent comments by politicians suggest 2021 may see improved relations.

Erdogan previously said both countries held talks at the intelligence level and that the main reason behind the dispute was Israel's policies on Palestine.

The Turkish leader also said his country wanted better relations with Tel Aviv, indicating it could be achieved in coming days if necessary conditions came to pass.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, for his part, said there were multiple mechanisms and institutions through which Israel and Turkey could establish communications.

He also noted the possibility of energy cooperation, namely by carrying Israeli hydrocarbons through Turkey, which he said would be an efficient route.

– Supporting political process in Syria, Libya

Turkey has indicated it would continue in 2021 to back the ongoing political process to end the Syrian conflict.

With its military campaigns — Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, Peace Spring and Spring Shield — Turkey made significant gains in its fight against terrorism and is likely to step up its efforts to ensure the safe return of Syrian asylum seekers to their native country.

Cavusoglu confirmed that Turkey would prioritize the return of Syrians and the political dialogue in the country in 2021.

Another major issue for Turkey in Syria this year is set to be the failure of the US and Russia to make good on their promise to push the YPG/PKK terror group from a strip of land stretching 30-kilometers (19 miles) deep from Syria's northern border with Turkey.

Similarly, Turkey is expected to support the legitimate Libyan government and the political process in the North African country.

– 'Asia Anew' policy to gain momentum

Turkey's relations with Asia, which has begun to emerge as the world's economic center, is likely to pick up speed in line with Ankara's "Asia Anew" policy launched in 2019 to boost ties.

As part of this policy, Turkey formed an action plan for activities in more than 30 countries. Furthermore, the country is likely to play an important role in the Belt and Road initiative and the revival of the Silk Road.

– Strategic ties with Moscow

Despite the fact that Turkey and Russia stood at different sides in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan, they still managed to maintain emphasis on dialogue and are expected to keep channels open in 2021, despite the challenges.

As for Syria, both sides are expected to maintain cooperation on their March 5, 2020 cease-fire agreement in Idlib and keep negotiations going in the Astana format.

On March 5, Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin announced they reached a cease-fire agreement in Idlib, the last opposition stronghold in Syria, between opposing rebels and Bashar al-Assaf regime forces.

At the same time, they appear set to continue cooperating in line with their joint observatory center in Azerbaijan following Baku's recent victory against Armenian forces in Upper Karabakh.

On top of these, Turkey and Russia are expected to maintain dialogue on other issues related to the S-400 air defense systems, as well as the Akkuyu Nuclear Plant, TurkStream pipeline and tourism.

*Writing by Ali Murat Alhas