Jerusalem Post [While Turkey frequently spreads misinformation via its state media, imprisons journalists and dissidents and bashes the US, it is growing closer to Russia.] By SETH J. FRANTZMAN JANUARY 2, 2021 Turkey and Russia are increasingly becoming strategic partners in an effort to work with Iran and remove the US from the Middle East. This is Turkey’s overall goal, and the recent conflicts and chaos that it has spread from Syria to Libya, the Mediterranean and Caucasus are designed to partition these areas into Russian and Turkish spheres of influence. Turkey has encouraged its lobbyists in the US to claim that Ankara is doing “geopolitics” designed to be a “bulwark” against Russia, using Cold War-era terminology to encourage Westerners to believe that Ankara is on the side of Washington against Moscow. The reality, however, is that Turkey’s goal is to work with Russia and Iran to reduce US influence. This has been the result in every area that Ankara has invaded and involved itself. Turkey worked with Russia to partition parts of northern Syria, removing US forces and spreading extremism. In Libya, a conflict that the US was once involved in has now become a playground for Turkish-backed militias. The recent war between Azerbaijan and Armenia was likewise designed to bring Turkey and Russia into direct contact in the southern Caucasus, remove US influence and partition the area. Evidence for this can be found in the agreement to end the war that saw Russian peacekeepers and soldiers increase their role in Nagorna-Karabakh, an autonomous Armenian region in Azerbaijan. Turkey prodded Baku into war against Armenians there, causing massive damage and forcing 50,000 to flee. For Turkey, the attacks on Armenian civilians were a success, replicating Turkish-backed ethnic-cleansing in Afrin where Kurds were expelled in January 2018. The model was the same in Nagorna-Karabakh. Turkey sent extremists, accused of beheading people, to ransack churches and force Armenians out. A hundred years after the Armenian genocide carried out by the Ottoman regime in 2015, Turkey wanted to continue the process. Much as in 1915, the goal would in the end would bring renewed Russian involvement in the Caucasus. RUSSIAN RESCUE workers have now reconstructed more than 2,150 buildings in Nagorna-Karabakh, according to Russia’s TASS media. "As many as 251 buildings have been reconstructed so far, including an apartment building, 245 private houses, two government buildings, an infrastructure facility and two social facilities," the statement reads. Some 2,600 more buildings damaged in the war may now receive Russian support. Russia views this as a kind of police action, going in to stop squabbling by former Soviet socialist republics. This is how Ankara views the region as well: from the Ottoman empire's point of view. That is why Turkey keeps talking about rewriting the Lausanne Treaty and other agreements made after the First World War. Ankara’s invasion of Syria and setting up a dozen bases in northern Iraq, as well as involvement in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, is part of this. Turkey sells its involvement with different public relations campaigns in different places. In Washington it sells this as “geopolitics,” pretending to be a US ally. In fact, Turkey is rapidly buying Russian arms. Turkey and Russia met in the Russian resort city of Sochi last week to talk strategy. Turkey’s state media says “the top Turkish and Russian diplomats met Tuesday to discuss international issues and help prepare for a meeting of the two countries’ presidents. Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Sochi, ahead of a planned meeting of the high-level Russian-Turkish Cooperation Council, set to be co-chaired by their presidents.” WHILE TURKEY frequently spreads misinformation via its state media, imprisons journalists and dissidents and bashes the US, it is growing closer to Russia. It is now four years since Russia’s ambassador to Turkey was assassinated. That incident has been quietly pushed aside in favor of the new alliance. Turkey, Russia and Iran see this as a pragmatic working relationship, growing out of the Astana process of 2016 that was supposed to carve up Syria into areas of influence and remove the US from eastern Syria. The end goal is the same: Remove the US and give each member of this new alliance their respective area of control. Turkey has tried to hint to Israel, as well as the US, that it wants “reconciliation.” However when Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks, he continues his militarist drive. His sycophants despise the US and Europe. They use the term “reconciliation” only because they think gullible Western media will buy them time and perhaps an in with the new US administration to continue their work with Russia and Iran. The US once had a wider role in the Caucasus. Georgia expected American support in 2008 when it wandered into a war with Russia over disputed areas. When Georgia was defeated, the US and European role there declined. Later in 2014, Ukraine expected more US support but saw Russia annex Crimea. The war that Turkey prodded Azerbaijan into in September last year was the final end of US involvement in the Caucasus. While Turkey sold the war as being needed to confront Iran and Russia, Ankara was in fact working with Tehran and Moscow. The goal was to bring Russia into the southern Caucasus as peacekeepers and to remove any Western influence. This is because Armenia had been seeking to drift away from the Russia orbit. Nikol Pashinyan wanted to seek closer ties to the West. To break this, Moscow allowed Turkish-backed Azerbaijan to launch a war to weaken him in the summer and fall of 2019. Weakened and defeated, he sued for peace – and Russia and Turkey moved into disputed areas with Baku’s acquiescence. Now Armenia is totally hostage to Moscow and Ankara. Turkey wants this. Azerbaijan, which sought for decades to grow closer to the US and also to Israel as a strategic partner, has now also seen itself cornered by Ankara. The end result is more Iranian, Russian and Turkish control, and a weakening of independent southern Caucasus states. WESTERN MEDIA is fed stories about how the Turkish-Iranian-Russian triangle is destined to clash because of historic Ottoman, Persian and Russian imperial goals, or because they are Sunni, Shi’ite and Christian countries. This is a misreading of history. They are more likely to work together against their common enemies in the West, and to further their joint authoritarian and military agendas. They share much in common as rising powers in the world, seeking to end the unipolar world of US hegemony that grew out of the Cold War. Those in Washington who see Turkey through a Cold War lens are wrong about Turkey’s overall agenda. The agenda of Ankara is always to weaken and reduce the US role in the Middle East and to increase the Russian and Iranian role. In every invasion Ankara has performed so far, it has sought to increase Russia and Iran’s power – and to not only weaken America, but to also weaken any groups that want democracy or a more free press, and to bring in extremists and authoritarians. John F. Kennedy in 1960 argued that the world was not just divided into a Soviet and American camp, but rather those countries that were “free” as opposed to those who aren't. He understood that authoritarians prefer to work together; that is what is happening in the Caucasus.
Category: 2021
RFE/RL Armenian Report – 01/01/2021
Friday, Russia Allocates $12 Million For Karabakh Refugees ARMENIA -- Children refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh hug each other in Dilijan, some 120 kilometers from Yerevan, October 8, 2020 Russia has allocated 10 million euros ($12.2 million) in financial assistance to thousands of ethnic Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh who fled to Armenia during the recent war. The office of Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigorian reported this week that the sum will co-finance the Armenian government’s ongoing aid programs for the refugees remaining in Armenia nearly two months after Moscow brokered an Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement to stop the war. The government has helped the refugees both during and after the six-week hostilities that displaced the majority of Karabakh’s population. According to Grigorian’s office, the government has spent about 15 billion drams ($29 million) for that purpose since November 16. The aid has included compensations of between 250,000 and 300,000 drams ($480-580) paid to those Karabakh families whose homes were destroyed by shelling or who lived in areas occupied by Azerbaijani forces. On December 17, the government also decided to create temporary jobs for refugees, finance paid internships for them and pay monthly benefits to families in Armenia hosting them. ARMENIA -- Refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh stay at a hotel in the Armenian border city of Goris, October 5, 2020 According to Karabakh officials, at least 90,000 civilians making up around 60 percent of Karabakh’s population fled their homes during the war that broke out on September 27. Most of them took refuge in Armenia. At least 47,000 Karabakh Armenians have reportedly returned home since the November 10 truce. Later in November, the Russian government opened in Stepanakert a “center for humanitarian reaction.” The center coordinates ongoing Russian-led demining operations in Karabakh and is also tasked with helping to rebuild homes and public infrastructure destroyed or seriously damaged during the hostilities. Russia’s Ministry of Civil Defense and Emergencies says that it has sent more than 1,500 tons of construction materials, household appliances and other relief supplies to Karabakh so far. Armenian PM Prioritizes Closer Ties With Russia Armenia -- President Armen Sarkissian (second from right) visits a Russian-Armenian border guard post on Armenia's border with Turkey, July 4, 2020. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has announced plans to further deepen Armenia’s relations with Russia, saying that his country needs “new security guarantees” after the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh. “The very first minutes of 2021 should be the ‘zero point’ for us to usher in the outset of our new national rise,” Pashinian said in a televised address to the nation aired on New Year’s Eve. “What do we need for this? First of all, to furnish a new security environment, the most important component of which is the launch of army reforms and the strengthening of relations with our primary security partner, Russia, and the creation, in this context, of new security guarantees,” he said. Armenia already has close political, economic and military ties with Russia. It hosts a Russian military base and has long received Russian weapons at knockdown prices and even for free. Moscow also deployed 2,000 peacekeeping troops to Karabakh as part of a Russian-brokered agreement that stopped the Armenian-Azerbaijani war on November 10. In addition, it dispatched Russian soldiers and border guards to Armenia’s Syunik region southwest of Karabakh to help the Armenian military defend it against possible Azerbaijani attacks. Armenia -- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Yerevan, October 1, 2019. Pashinian again praised the Russian peacekeepers, saying that their presence provides “substantial security guarantees” for Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population. The vast majority of Armenian opposition forces, including the formerly pro-Western Bright Armenia Party (LHK), also support closer ties with Russia, saying that is the only realistic way to counter Azerbaijan’s military alliance with Turkey. LHK leader Edmon Marukian called last week for the opening of a second Russian military base in Armenia. Marukian said the base should be stationed in Syunik. Former President Robert Kocharian likewise made a case on December 4 for Armenia’s “much deeper integration” with Russia. Kocharian, who has a cordial rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that only Russia can help his country rearm its armed forces and confront new security challenges in the aftermath of the Karabakh war. “I am convinced that the further development of multifaceted Russian-Armenian ties meets the fundamental interests of our two brotherly peoples,” Putin said in a New Year and Christmas message to Pashinian sent earlier this week. He said that in the course of 2020 Moscow and Yerevan “became fully convinced of the significance of friendly, allied relations between our countries.” Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2021 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc. 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
Asbarez: A New Year Message
January 1, 2020
Armenian Revolutionary Federation Western U.S.
Last year was one of great sorrow and tribulation for all humanity. For the Armenian Nation it was a year marred by calamity and severe losses.
However hard the difficulties that emerge for our nation and party, and despite all the challenges that are facing our homeland and its people, the ranks of the ARF Western U.S., as part of the global ARF family, welcome the new year with renewed commitment and with the conviction to overcome all challenges.
On this new year, first and foremost we bow our heads to the memory of those who gave their life in service and defense of our homeland and nation. We also wish the Armenian Army, the supporters of our homeland and the entire Armenian nation a happy new year, wishing them health and a brighter future.
ARF Western U.S. Central Committee
Asbarez: Prelate’s New Year and Christmas Message
January 1, 2020
Western Prelate Bishop Torkom Donoyan
Living Hope Radiates From The Manger In Bethlehem
Beloved brothers and sisters in Christ,
The year 2020 was not a year filled with expectations that we were waiting for because of all the tribulations and problems that we faced. In February, the Coronavirus struck the world and claimed millions of lives, causing the world economy to collapse and we are still in the midst of the chaos it has caused. In August, we witnessed the horrific bombing in Beirut, the consequences of which weighed heavily on the otherwise troubled Lebanon. Also, given the military, political and social insecurity of some Middle Eastern and European countries. In addition, it should be noted with deep sorrow that our nation, our homeland, paid the heaviest price due to the Turkish-Azeri war unleashed against Armenia-Artsakh from the last days of September to the beginning of November. It brought darkness on Armenia; thousands of victims, refugees, captives and the missing greatly oppressed the Church and demoralized the people. Because, today in our midst, we have those who are homeless and widowed, children, fathers and mothers, who lost their ancestral land. Indeed, Armenians lived the most difficult, the most bitter, the inexplicable.
If disasters and catastrophes, individual or collective sorrows and trials, failures and losses were the decisive qualities of life and death, then we should not have reached the New Year 2021.
Simply put, if Hayg Nahabed and his sons did not lose the hope of living free and sovereign when they fought against the great ruler of Babylon, Bel, and won.
If after the collapse of the empire of Dikran the Great, the Armenian people did not lose hope of redistribution.
If in 387, when Armenia was divided between Byzantium and Persia, our people did not lose hope of remaining one.
If blood and sweat were mixed during the battle of Vartanants, the nation did not lose hope of being guided by faith.
When Armenians lost Ani, but did not lose its hope of having a capital.
When various wars struck Armenia; Mongols, Seljuks and other raids shattered our impregnable fortress and ruined our settlements, we still did not lose hope for the future.
When we faced various obstacles, even though depressed, we did not lose hope of growing through those difficulties.
When the storms came in from the North, East, South and West, the sky was covered with a thick fog, the bright sun was darkened by dark clouds, but our people remained strong in hope and did not lose hope of seeing the rainbow of tomorrow.
When the nation walked the whirlpool of death, lived through the bitter Genocide of 1915, it lost everything, but did not lose hope of re-emergence.
For that immortal hope radiated from the manger of Bethlehem and educated us with the heavenly virtue of always looking to life with hope. Clinging to the centuries-old spiritual strength of our ancestors, today we will not allow the immaterial, life-giving cup of hope of the Armenian people, which is otherwise an indestructible testament to those who live in trust, to fall and be shattered. Let us bow before the great saints and immortals who formed our national identity, created the Armenian statehood and enlightened the Church.
Now, in the name of the collective unity of our nation, as in the past, today we set aside our individual preferences and unite around the idea of a united power, because history shows that when we became united, we became invincible, strong and victorious. Yes, it is true that we have been tested for centuries, but nationally we have blossomed because we are one.
Although our sky is not as bright and peaceful, our homeland Armenia and Artsakh are surrounded by many dark and gloomy clouds, nevertheless, this Christmas, when we look at the heavens, through the eyes of faith we can see the life-giving hope of Bethlehem that pervaded our nation before all nations as the beginning of a new life.
Hope, which became a symbol for the children of our nation, became a way to reach new spiritual heights and a new way of living.
It is because of that hope which we have illuminated the darkness around us throughout history, spread warmth and humanity, science and education, culture and food to the world through our spiritual and scientific geniuses, the works of our astronomical victors and the special courage of our race,
The hope which bonds the children of our nation with Jesus.
The hope that although it is not seen nor explained, but our soul is under its protection like a shield, because we as a nation have decided to live and not die, clinging to our centuries-old faith, binding us to the hope of Bethlehem. God really wanted to show us how wonderful His plans are; to understand that Christ born in the manger is the greatest glory that we hoped for. Thus, raising the cup of life-giving hope towards heaven, we repeat this simple but wise praise; “But I trust in You forever, and I will continue to praise You.” (Psalm 71:14).
I greet you all on the New Year and Christmas. We wish the New Year 2021 to bring peace, health and happiness to all, and for the children of our nation and homeland to live full of new visions and a hopeful future; a true year of rebirth.
Happy New Year
Christ Is Born And Revealed
Blessed Is The Revelation Of Christ
With Christian love,
Bishop Torkom Donoyan, Prelate
Western United States
January 1, 2021
Los Angeles, California
Turkey to Turn Armenian Church into ‘Humor Art Center’
Breitbart
Jan 1 2021
78 TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE/AFP/File Mustafa Kamaci
The local government in south-central Konya, Turkey, announced this week that it would turn a fully renovated 19th-century Armenian church into a “humor art house” after barring worshippers from using the church for years, multiple reports revealed Thursday.
Under Islamist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish government has aggressively targeted its Christian minority community and attempted to erase Christian heritage in the country. Erdogan’s most prominent attempt to erase the Christian history of Turkey occurred last year, when he converted the Hagia Sophia, one of Byzantine Christianity’s most important architectural facilities, into a mosque. The conversion process involved removing or covering up priceless Christian art in the former basilica.
Erdogan — who, like all Turkish leaders, denies the 1915 genocide of Armenians, Assyrians, and Greeks by Turkey occurred — has also escalated aggression against both ethnic Armenians within Turkey and the nation of Armenia. In September, after fighting erupted between Armenian and Azerbaijan in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Erdogan’s government reportedly recruited thousands of battle-hardened Syrian mercenaries to fight in the Caucasus war theater. Erdogan attended a “victory parade” in Baku in December alongside Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to celebrate the expulsion of the indigenous Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.
According to the Stockholm Center for Freedom, a news organization founded by dissident Turkish journalists, the Surp Yerrortutyun (Holy Trinity) Armenian church was built in 1859 and boasts an official cultural heritage site designation in Turkey. The Turkish government reportedly used the church’s location — the hometown of a medieval Turkish “satirist” — as reason to renovate the church, turning it into the “World’s Masters of Humor Art House” and the hub of a greater “humor village.” The government has not yet announced a reopening date for the venue.
“Restoration” of the church cost about half a million dollars and ended in 2017, but Turkish officials did nothing with the venue until now and did not allow Christians to pray in it.
It is not clear at press time how many Christians live in the area; the Stockholm Center noted an estimated 5,000 Armenians lived in the vicinity around the church historically, prior to the 1915 genocide. PanArmenian.net, a news site that caters to the Armenian community, noted in its report on the Holy Trinity church that, prior to the genocide, “there were four other Armenian educational institutions in the district. Among them, the Surp Stepanos School was famous in all provinces for its superior education quality.”
International Christian Concern, a faith-based human rights organization, condemned the Turkish government on Thursday for its repurposing of the house of worship.
“The 1915 genocide nearly eliminated the Armenian Christian population from Turkey. Since then, Turkey has taken control over most of the abandoned churches and other Armenian cultural sites,” the group said in a statement. “Turkey does not acknowledge the genocide, and has not made any attempts to restore these churches back to their original Christian community.”
“Instead, Turkey either converts these churches into mosques or restores their buildings into faith tourism sites. When pursuing the later option, Turkey uses it as an example to the international arena about how they care for religious freedom,” the statement concluded, adding that turning churches into tourism sites complicates Christians’ ability to worship there.
The Armenian Genocide is estimated to have killed 1.5 million of the 2 million Armenians estimated to have been alive at the time.
Erdogan has repeatedly denied the genocide happened and his officials have taken several recent opportunities to threaten the descendants of the few Armenians Turkey did not kill during that atrocity. In July, for example, the Turkish government — a U.S. ally through NATO — offered Azerbaijan advanced military technology to attack Armenia.
“Our armed unmanned aerial vehicles, ammunition and missiles with our experience, technology, and capabilities are at Azerbaijan’s service,” İsmail Demir, the head of Presidency of Defense Industries, a government-related entity, said in July.
Demir made his offer after the Azeri defense ministry threatened to bomb Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, a Soviet relic widely considered the world’s most dangerous nuclear plant.
“The Armenian side must not forget that our army’s state-of-the-art missile systems allow us to strike the Metsamor nuclear plant with precision, which could lead to a great catastrophe for Armenia,” Vagif Dargahli, a Defense Ministry spokesman, said the same week Turkey offered Azerbaijan missiles.
In September, fighting erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh. The region, which Armenians refer to as Artsakh, is a historic, indigenous Armenian territory given to the Azeri Soviet Socialist Republic under Joseph Stalin. While technically within Azerbaijan’s borders, it had been ruled by an ethnic Armenian separatist government since the fall of the Soviet Union. The state of Armenia does not recognize Artsakh as a sovereign state.
Both sides claimed the other triggered the fighting this year. The Artsakh government, and the Armenian government, accused the Azeris of committing several human rights violations in battle, including beheading civilians and targeting maternity hospitals. Turkey offered military aid to Azerbaijan but did not formally send Turkish troops to the region. Armenian government officials estimated, however, that Turkey sent as many as 4,000 Syrian mercenary jihadists into Nagorno-Karabakh to attack the Christian-majority ethnic Armenians there.
The fighting ended with a peace treaty that gave Azerbaijan not just control of Nagorno-Karabakh, but power over sovereign Armenian territory, prompting widespread protests in the Armenian capital, Yerevan.
The Azeris organized a “victory parade” following the peace deal, inviting Erdogan. Speaking at the event, Erdogan threatened the Armenian people once more.
“Azerbaijan’s saving its lands from occupation does not mean that the struggle is over,” Erdogan said. “The struggle carried out in the political and military areas will continue from now on many other fronts.”
Turkish Press: Azerbaijani civilian killed by Armenian landmine blast
Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Jan 1 2021
Azerbaijani civilian killed by Armenian landmine blast
Ruslan Rehimov | 01.01.2021
BAKU, Azerbaijan
An Azerbaijani civilian has succumbed to wounds he sustained from an explosion caused by an Armenian landmine, according to a local authority on Friday.
The Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said in a statement that Zabil Babayev stepped on a mine in Fuzuli province which was liberated from Armenian occupation.
An investigation has been launched into the incident and the public has been warned against entering liberated areas until the region is cleared of mines.
Mines planted by Armenian forces have claimed the lives of numerous Azerbaijani civilians and soldiers.
Liberation of Karabakh
Relations between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized as an Azerbaijani territory, and seven adjacent regions.
When new clashes erupted on Sept. 27, the Armenian army launched attacks on civilians and Azerbaijani forces and violated several humanitarian cease-fire agreements.
During the 44-day conflict, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and nearly 300 settlements and villages from the nearly three-decade-long occupation.
Despite the deal ending the conflict, the Armenian army several times violated the agreement and martyred several Azerbaijani soldiers and a civilian, as well as wounded few people, according to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry.
*Writing by Sena Guler
Armenia suspends import of Turkish goods
Mehr News Agency, Iran
Jan 1 2021
TEHRAN, Jan. 01 (MNA) – Yerevan government suspended the import of Turkish –made goods to Armenia for six months in response to Turkish military support for the Republic of Azerbaijan.
This ban was adopted on October 20, 2020 and has come into force today on January 1, 2021.
This prohibition shall not include goods and materials required for manufacture of goods produced by Armenia itself.
Armenian Ministry of Economy has said that the ban will not increase the price of goods in the country because it believes that the consumption of Turkish goods is not dominant in this country and Yerevan is able to compensate for the shortage of Turkish goods from countries such as Iran, Belarus, Russia and China.
After 44 days of conflict erupted between Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh region, the two sides reached a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 14 with the mediation of Russia.
According to the agreement, Armenia was obliged to evacuate the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Aghdam, Kalbajar and Lachin and to establish a land corridor from Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan.
During this war, Armenia accused Ankara government of openly providing arms and logistics to the Republic of Azerbaijan.
MA/FNA13991012000136
Karabakh conflict: How the status-quo changed after a quarter of a century
Modern Diplomacy
Jan 1 2021
This piece mainly argues that the fact that with respect to the Karabakh conflict, the economic, military, and geopolitical balance of power has changed in a quarter of a century or so in favor of Azerbaijan and Turkey but at the expense of Armenia produced a victory for Azerbaijan in the war over Karabakh in September-November 2020. Thanks to its hydrocarbon resources, over the years, Azerbaijan has invested in the armed forces massively. In the meantime, both Azerbaijan and Turkey have cultivated closer ties with Russia. Armenia’s over-reliance on Russia along with its weak economic and military capabilities, on the other hand, has put it in a disadvantaged position against Azerbaijan and in the region. The color revolution, which swept pro-European Union Nikol Pashinyan into power as prime minister in Armenia in 2018 helped distance Moscow from Yerevan. Unlike in the past, the United States was disengaged from the region, mainly because of its partial withdrawal from the international stage. The European Union has been traditionally relatively uninvolved in the conflict and France preferred to remain neutral in the dispute not to jeopardize its impartiality towards the warring parties. Squeezed between the geopolitical interests in the region and its ethnic Azeris’ sympathy with Azerbaijan, Iran was unable to play a key role in the conflict. The confluence of these factors changed the hitherto prevailing balance of power and produced a victory for Azerbaijan, overturning the 26-year old status-quo in the region.
The Origins of the Karabakh Conflict
Inhabited to a large extent by the Armenians, Karabakh was granted to Soviet Azerbaijan by the Soviet Union in 1921. Towards the end of the Cold War, Karabakh wanted to split from Azerbaijan, leading to the first clashes between the parties. The first Karabakh War started in 1992 and ended in 1994, leaving 25,000 dead and 724,000 Azeris and 300,000 – 500,000 Armenians displaced. At the end of the war, Armenians seized Karabakh and all of five as well as a large part of two other districts (rayons) of Azerbaijan, surrounding Karabakh, representing thirteen percent of Azerbaijan’s territory. Following the May 1994 ceasefire brokered by Russia, the Minsk Group under OSCE led the peace negotiations, albeit with no success. Given that Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s demands were highly irreconcilable – respect for territorial integrity (Azerbaijan) and the right of self-determination (Armenia), it proved difficult to find a common ground despite years of negotiations. Ending this protracted conflict through a peace agreement was not possible also due to the fact that both sides believed that time would enhance their respective positions. Armenians in Karabakh thought that over time their self-declared de-facto independent republic will gradually gain international recognition while Azerbaijan believed that their military build-up would strengthen its leverage over the Armenians.
The Flare-up of the Conflict and the Peace Deal
Violence flared up in Karabakh on 27 September 2020 after a tense year between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Following the 44-day fighting, with the loss of the strategically important town of Shusha in Karabakh to Azerbaijan, Armenia decided to lay down its arms. The conflict left 2,425 Armenians and 2,783 Azeris dead. After the fighting ended with a Russia-brokered ceasefire, 1,960 Russian peacekeepers were deployed in the region to monitor the ceasefire. The peace deal signed on 9 November 2020 ensured the transfer of all the seven Armenia-occupied districts, adjacent to Karabakh to Azerbaijan, division of Karabakh into two parts, controlled by Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively, the right of return of internally displaced people and refugees in the 1990s to the region, opening of a corridor from Azerbaijan to its autonomous republic of Nakhchivan, bordering Turkey, connection of Karabakh to Armenia through Lachin corridor. The deal did not determine the core issue of the final status of Karabakh, which will be decided through negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan later.
Cultivation of Close Ties between Azerbaijan and Russia
An important factor that contributed to Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the 44-day long war was Azerbaijan’s cultivation of close ties with Russia. Striving for the expansion of its influence in its “near abroad” after Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, Russia did not want to push Azerbaijan, a geostrategically important and energy exporting country to the embrace of the West. As for Azerbaijan, even if it did not join the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), it did not turn Russia into an enemy unlike Georgia or Ukraine did. Unlike Georgia, Azerbaijan has never vocally expressed its desire to join NATO. So, even though Armenia was not an official ally of Russia, there was no reason for Moscow to punish Baku.
Aware of the role that Russia could play in the resolution of the frozen Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan courted with Moscow although it, at the same time, viewed Russia as a threat. Azerbaijan cooperated with Russia at the expense of its relations with the West, which was another factor gaining the sympathy of Russia for Azerbaijan. A watershed event in Azerbaijan’s growing cooperation with Russia was the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war that demonstrated that Russia is the dominant actor in the region and the West was not willing to counter Russia. This led Azerbaijan to increase economic cooperation with the border region North Caucasus in the Russian Federation and led to expansion of Russian soft power, including an increase in education provided in Russian language, and proliferation pro-Russia media outlets and politically engaged initiatives in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan expected that these steps as well as its multi-billion dollar acquisition of arms and military equipment from Russia would neutralize Moscow in case of flare-up of a war with Armenia as was the case in the April 2016 conflict, which Moscow did not interfere promptly.
Growing Military Disparity between Azerbaijan and Armenia
Azerbaijan has used hydrocarbon-revenues for the expansion of its weapons and military equipment massively, creating a major disparity between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces over the years. Azerbaijani military budget has started to grow dramatically in 2006 when Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline became operational. By 2010, Azerbaijan’s defense expenditure alone surpassed Armenia state’s whole budget. After the first Karabakh conflict ended, Azerbaijan’s military expenditure totalled $70 million in 1995. Over the years, however, there was a dramatic jump in its military expenditure, rising to $1.7 billion in 2018. Armenia’s military spending was, on the other hand, $50 million in 1995 while it totalled $610 million in 2018. That is, Azerbaijan’s military spending was three times higher than that of Armenia. As a result of this wide imbalance in military spending, Armenia acquired only Russian weapons at subsidized prices or second-hand arms free of charge, Azerbaijan purchased high-tech arms not only from Russia but also from other suppliers such as Israel and Turkey. Apparently, Azerbaijan military’s intensive use of unmanned drones also played a decisive role in its victory.
Shifting Armenian Position
Armenia’s shifting position was another determinant in the fate of the Karabakh war. Armenia’s asymmetrical relationship with its ally Russia has deteriorated at Erivan’s expense in that it became heavily dependent on Russia in terms of economy, security and energy supply. Its closed borders, a weak manufacturing sector, its inability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and its channelling of limited economic resources to military expenditure put the brakes on the economic growth of Armenia. The country did not benefit economically either from joining the EAEU since its rationale is geopolitical. By implication, Armenia did not possess sufficient military arsenal at par with that of Azerbaijan. Nor did it turn into an economic success story that could attract the attention of major powers.
Change of hands at the helm of the Armenian state after the Velvet Revolution in 2018 was another development that changed the balance of power at the expense of Armenia. Considering the new Armenian leader Pashinyan, who overthrew the old guard close to the Kremlin, as “the man of Soros”, Russia wanted to replace him with a more loyal politician. Besides, realizing that the balance in the conflict has shifted in favour of Azerbaijan in 26 years, Russia expected Armenia to be more flexible at the peace negotiations before the flare-up of the conflict in September 2020. Since Armenia did not agree to change its position, Russia did not want to assume the geopolitical cost of Armenia’s intransigence by interfering in the conflict that broke out in September 2020 in an untimely manner. That is why, Russia dragged its feet to involve in the conflict.
Turkey’s Rapprochement with Russia and Alliance with Azerbaijan
Turkish-Russian rapprochement was another factor that tilted the balance of power in the region in favour of Azerbaijan. Strained relations with the West pushed Moscow and Ankara to forge a close partnership with each other. Having competed with Russia in the first half of the 1990s in Eurasia, Turkey opted to cooperate with it after the second half of the 1990s, developing a multi-dimensional relationship with this country. The volume of bilateral trade reached $26.3 billion in 2019. Although they have some differences in geostrategic issues like in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, they both benefit from this partnership that encompasses trade, energy, investment, pipeline politics, tourism, arms supply and regional issues. In short, when the conflict broke out in September, Turkey was a partner for Russia more than a rival. That is why Russia remained silent to Turkey’s vocal support to Azerbaijan in the conflict in September unlike in the first Karabakh war at the beginning of the 1990s.
Moreover, Turkey’s unconditional support to Azerbaijan, above all its military support, including its supply of unmanned drones was instrumental in determining the fate of the conflict. They concluded a Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance Agreement in 2010 that foresaw mutual aid in case of an attack by a third party. Turkey’s growing support to Azerbaijan stems above all not only from its growing integration with Azerbaijan, especially, in the field of energy, including the launch of Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) in 2019, shipping more Azeri gas to Turkey and the massive investment of the Azerbaijani state energy giant SOCAR in Turkey but also from its increasing assertiveness in its neighbourhood. That is, its fierce backing to Baku in the conflict is, at the same time, a corollary of its assertive foreign policy in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks to a dramatic growth in its economy after 2000 as a result of economic policies turning it into a “trading state” and a concomitant rise in its military capabilities, Turkey transformed into a major actor in its region.
Actors that Played a Lesser Role in the Conflict
As for the Western role in the conflict, although Armenians associate themselves with the Western civilization, Armenia does not have much strategic importance for the West. It is the smallest post-Soviet republic, does not have energy resources nor does it have energy transit routes. Given the authoritarian regime that dominated in the country in the post-Cold War period, the West has lost its interest in Armenia. Overall, the EU has been traditionally relatively disengaged from the Karabakh conflict mainly because of the dominating role of Russia in the issue as well as the risk of impartiality of the EU for Azerbaijan after most of the EU countries recognized the independence of Kosovo after 2008. Drawing a similarity between their status, Azerbaijan was concerned that EU countries could also recognize the self-proclaimed Karabakh Republic like Kosovo.
As for France, despite the pressure applied by 600,000 Armenian diaspora in the country to intervene in the conflict on behalf of Armenia, it remained impartial in the conflict, justifying this attitude with its role as co-chairman in the OSCE Minsk Group. Another reason for the inactive posture of France in the issue is that the South Caucasus is not a traditional area of influence for France unlike Africa.
Likewise, the USA remained aloof from the conflict with the exception of a few statements from the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling for a peaceful resolution of the conflict and hosting talks with Azeri and Armenian ministers of foreign affairs. The lack of US interest in the conflict largely stems from the partial US disengagement from international politics as a result of “America First” approach under Donald Trump Administration. Washington’s preoccupation with the presidential elections as well as the fight against COVID-19 pandemic also distracted Washington’s attention from the region.
Like the EU and the USA, another actor that played a little role in the conflict, if any, is Iran. Iran is divided between geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus and the sociological realities inside the country.On the one hand, Iran strives to counterbalance the sway of the Azerbaijan-Turkish alliance in the region, supporting the Armenia-Russia axis. Besides, Azerbaijan’s close relationship with Israel disturbs Iran. On the other hand, it is home to about seventeen million ethnic Azeris, who called for the Iranian state to support Azerbaijan against Armenia in the conflict. As a result, Iran remained largely impartial in the conflict apart from proposing a not-so effective peace plan.
In Lieu of Conclusion
The 44-day war overturned the 26-year status-quo in Karabakh. Now that the final status of Karabakh is to be determined following the negotiations to be held in the next weeks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the next step should be to establish a permanent peace in the region. Now, it will be much easier for Turkey and Azerbaijan to open their closed borders with Armenia. To be sure, this will boost economic integration of Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey, bolstering its economic development. Involvement of regional powers like Russia and Iran in this kind of initiatives is also a sine qua non for the achievement of a sustainable peace in the region.
Why there are so many problems with the Armenia-Azerbaijan ‘new-old border’
JAM News
Jan 1 2021
Shahin Rzayev, Baku
The trilateral agreement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia stopped the war in Karabakh on November 10, 2020 and drew the general outlines of a future peace treaty.
However, both sides immediately began to interpret the text of the statement in their own way.
The main dispute has erupted around the question: where is the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia? The solution to another important problem depends on the answer to this question: to which borders should Armenia now withdraw its troops?
The problem of the state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia has turned out to be quite complicated due to several problems, primarily related to history.
Let’s analyse each one.
History of the Karabakh conflict
After the first Karabakh war (1989-1994), seven regions of Azerbaijan around Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of Armenian forces. For the next 30 years, the border between Armenia and the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was conditional, and checkpoints were established quite arbitrarily.
Borders between republics in the Soviet Union were drawn based on the borders of the Russian Empire
Within the Soviet Union, administrative boundaries were never constant. The boundaries of the subjects of the USSR, that is, the union republics, were mainly drawn on the basis of the boundaries of the provinces and counties of the Russian Empire. And how they were drawn, perhaps only God and the Russian Tsar knew.
After the split of the empire, several states were formed on its ruins that declared their independence, including Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
1980s map.
From the very first day, all three countries began presenting territorial claims against one another, because the old borders of the imperial districts of the 19th century did not take into account the ethnic composition of the population.
In particular, Azerbaijan and Armenia argued over three regions: Nakhichevan, Zangezur and Karabakh.
After the intervention of the Red Army in 1920-21, all the countries of the South Caucasus returned to Russia again, but under a new ‘brand’ – the USSR. And the territorial disputes were quickly and in their own way resolved by the Bolsheviks.
Nakhichevan and Karabakh went to Azerbaijan as autonomous republics.
The Zangezur district of the former Elizavetpol (Ganja) province was divided between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The eastern part became part of Azerbaijan. And Western Zangezur, with a predominantly Armenian population, after a tough armed struggle, became part of Armenia.
But the problems didn’t end there.
Formal and non-permanent administrative boundaries in the USSR
Administrative boundaries between the subjects of the Soviet Union were largely formal. Often, Moscow, in its own way, acting with political or economic considerations in mind, created new union republics or abolished old ones, changed the borders between them, raised or lowered the status of autonomous areas.
This happened with Abkhazia, which initially received the status of a union republic, and then was changed to the status of an autonomous republic within the Georgian union republic.
And Crimea was transferred from the Russian Union Republic to the Ukrainian one.
The exchange of territories between neighboring Union republics was carried out simply, since in Moscow they thought: “What’s the difference if the country is one and the same?”
Such a correction of the administrative boundary between Azerbaijan and Armenia was carried out three times: in 1929, 1935 and 1984.
This was justified by the desire to “optimize” agricultural management.
After the creation of collective farms in the USSR, it sometimes turned out that the village was on the territory of Armenia, and the lands cultivated by the peasants were on the territory of Azerbaijan. And vice versa.
This is how the enclaves of Artsvashen / Bashkend, Voskepar / Askipara, Kyarki / Tigranashen appeared.
The territories of the Gazakh region were transferred to Armenia, the territories of the Goris region – to Azerbaijan.
How do Azerbaijan and Armenia propose to get out of this multilevel problem?
Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers in their new posts after the second Karabakh war. There are several tens of meters between them.
Baku – return to maps of the Soviet period
Now, after Azerbaijan has regained control over these areas according to the military results of the war and a tripartite statement, Baku insists that Armenian troops should withdraw to the borders of 1988 – that is, return to the administrative border between the Armenian and Azerbaijani republics within the Soviet Union.
Yerevan – take into account new realities and investments made in the development of districts
Armenia claims that over the past years, villages have expanded, new roads have been built, and the development of minerals has begun. Yerevan proposes these new realities be taken into account.
Russia has not offered solutions yet
So far, it seems that the third party, Russia, turned out to be somewhat unprepared for this turn of events. The November 10 statement said nothing about the state border.
Both sides, together with Russian peacekeepers, are trying, using old Soviet topographic maps and GPS devices, to mark on the ground the “old” border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which should become the “new” one in the future and be officially recognised by the two independent states.
But this process requires clarifications and changes, and is accompanied by many excesses. In particular, one of the Armenian villages will actually be divided in half.
Similar situations with the Azerbaijani-Russian and Azerbaijani-Georgian borders
Several years ago there were similar problems on the Azerbaijani-Russian border.
Two villages were administratively on the Azerbaijani side of the border, but were subordinate to the Dagestan state farm.
In 2010, Azerbaijan and Russia completed the process of border delimitation and both villages remained in Azerbaijan.
But with Georgia, Azerbaijan is still unable to complete the delimitation process. The main controversy surrounding the monastery complex David Gareji / Keshikchidag.
Armenia’s 6-Month Ban on Import of Turkish Goods Enters Into Force
SPUTNIK
Jan 1 2021
Armenia’s 6-Month Ban on Import of Turkish Goods Enters Into Force
© Sputnik / Anton Denisov
06:55 GMT 01.01.2021Get short URL
YEREVAN (Sputnik) – Armenia’s temporary six-month ban on import of goods having Turkish origin takes effect on Friday.
Yerevan announced the decision to restrict imports from Turkey on 20 October, citing security concerns linked to Ankara’s open support of "Azeri aggression against Republic of Artsakh," known internationally as Nagorno-Karabakh.
Restrictions will not apply to products intended for intermediate consumption or needed for production of Armenian goods.
According to the economy ministry, the ban will not lead to an increase in prices in the country as Turkish goods are not dominant in any product segments, and Armenian entrepreneurs will be able to replace Turkish imports with Russian, Belarusian, Iranian or Chinese goods.