Russia’s role in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

June 9 2023
 

09.06.2023, 15:11


After a 30-year conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is currently unclear whether the countries will be able to reach a consensus and sign a peace agreement. Meanwhile, when it comes to inciting separatist movements in post-soviet space, there is always a place for Russia. 

For Ukraine, which is now surviving the biggest war in Europe since WWII, it is important to analyze and make conclusions from Russian behavior and activities in different conflicts and wars, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not an exception. 

To investigate Russia’s role and influences, it is necessary to examine the historical, political, and strategic factors shaping the geopolitical map of the region as well as to study the experience of other countries.

https://uacrisis.org/en/ukraine-in-flames-456

Why were the Armenian-Azerbaijani talks postponed? Opinions

June 9 2023
  • JAMnews
  • Yerevan

Armenian-Azerbaijani talks postponed

According to an official statement from the Armenian Foreign Ministry, the Armenian-Azerbaijani talks scheduled for June 12 in Washington were postponed “at the request of the Azerbaijani side.” Baku did not comment on the reasons, and the Americans have not yet announced when the next round of negotiations is planned for.

According to Olesya Vardanyan, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group for the South Caucasus, Baku’s request to postpone the talks indicates that Azerbaijan “has not yet made up its mind on a number of key issues” related to the peace treaty.


  • EU mission expands to contain Baku’s provocations – Armenian political scientist
  • Video from Baku with interviews of Armenian prisoners
  • Pashinyan-Aliyev-Michel meeting in extended format: Macron and Scholz did not help?

Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Tigran Khachatryan told journalists about this a few hours ago, but did not provide details, and did not answer the question whether the Armenian government received a response from Baku to its latest proposals on the draft peace treaty.

“If at some stage we made a proposal regarding which we still do not know the position of the Azerbaijani side or vice versa, these are all normal processes. There is no need to look for something special behind it. It is important that recently the parties have noticed a convergence of points of view in the course of discussions and negotiations,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.

Press Secretary of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Ani Badalyan, announcing the cancellation of the expected meeting at the request of the Azerbaijani side, assured that the date of the next talks would be announced as soon as the terms were agreed.

The press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Aykhan Hajizade, limited himself to the following statement:

“The meeting is expected soon. As a rule, there is a practice of announcing the exact dates of the meeting by the host country.”

The mediators of the talks also avoided commenting on the reasons for the postponement of the scheduled meeting and on the possible date for a new one.

“We look forward to another round of talks as the parties continue to strive for a peaceful future in the South Caucasus region. Direct dialogue is the key to solving problems, achieving a lasting and dignified peace, ” the US State Department said in a statement.

What is known about the upcoming talks in Chisinau between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan, the expectations of Western mediators, as well as the opinion of a political scientist

Armenian experts initially did not pin great hopes on the talks in Washington, emphasizing the fact that the positions of the parties on key issues are very far from each other. In confirmation, quotes were cited from the speech of the President of Azerbaijan, where Aliyev said that the Karabakh Armenians should “throw their fake “state attributes” into the trash can and dissolve the “parliament”, obey the laws of Azerbaijan.

Political observer Hakob Badalyan described these statements as an “ultimatum”. He specifically noted the tough rhetoric coming from Baku, and advised paying attention to the news from Azerbaijan, in which “recently it has been reported about the alleged violations of the ceasefire regime by Armenian forces.”

“This situation allows us to say that on the eve of the Washington talks there were no prerequisites for expecting the effectiveness of these talks, the possibility of progress,” he said.

Olesya Vardanyan, Senior Analyst of the International Crisis Group for the South Caucasus, believes that after negotiations at different levels and in different capitals, discussions have reached a “decisive stage”:

“Important decisions must be made regarding important sections of the future peace agreement, in particular, the future of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and the process of demarcation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.”

She believes that there is still no certainty in Azerbaijan on these issues, which is why Baku decided to postpone the talks in Washington.

According to acting Director of Programs for Russia and Europe at the US Institute of Peace Heather Ashby, the next round of US-brokered talks will focus on two main issues:

  • “the status of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan, the provision of security guarantees to Karabakh Armenians by Baku”,
  • “transport corridor connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan”.

Ashby believes that providing security guarantees to the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will contribute to “creating confidence in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan”:

“As for the Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan connection, Russia and Iran have their own interests in this “corridor”. And they will try to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan to make sure that the transport route does not contradict their interests in the region. For Russia, this transport corridor is more important.”

Despite Baku’s demands, the Armenian authorities have repeatedly stated that there can be no question of providing an extraterritorial corridor through their sovereign territory. The Armenian government believes that the unblocking of communications, provided for by the tripartite statement of November 9, 2020, provides for procedures only in accordance with the laws of the countries. That is, each of the countries provides roads through its territory, but not a “corridor”, since this term implies a loss of control in this territory.

A New Chapter In The Caucasus? Armenia And Azerbaijan Make Strides Towards Peace

  • After various meetings and negotiations, including those mediated by the European Union and Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are demonstrating progress in peace talks.
  • The reactivation of a working group focused on transportation projects, and an agreement to reopen railway connection points are some of the significant developments.
  • Azerbaijan's promise of amnesty to Armenian separatists in the Karabakh region, discussion of an exchange of exclaves, and an upcoming summit in Brussels are also significant milestones in the peace process.

On June 1, during the course of his visit to Chisinau, Moldova, to attend the second summit of the European Political Community (EPC), Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the next meeting of the foreign ministers from his country and Azerbaijan will take place in Washington on June 12 (Armenpress.am, June 1). Although it has been postponed since, the Azerbaijani side declared that the new date will be announced soon (Modern.az, June 8). If it indeed takes place, this will be the second meeting of the two ministers hosted by the United States, after their four-day peace talks in the US capital in early May 2023 (see EDM, May 8). Following this meeting, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the two South Caucasus republics were “within reach of an agreement” (State.gov, May 4). Indeed, multiple meetings have taken place since then between representatives of the two countries at various levels, resulting in some noteworthy advancements.

The European Union–mediated summit of Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Brussels on May 14 and the Russian-mediated foreign ministers’ meeting in Moscow on May 19 (see EDM, May 23) had provided a good basis for subsequent talks between the two sides. Most importantly, the recognition of the Karabakh region as part of Azerbaijan by Pashinyan, which has historically been a point of contention between both countries, was a remarkable impetus for the peace process (Consilium.europa.eu, May 14).

In the aftermath of these two meetings, the long-awaited trilateral summit of Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian leaders took place in Moscow on May 25. This trilateral gathering was organized on the sidelines of the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), where Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev took part as a guest for the first time (President.az, May 25).

A few hours before the resumption of high-level peace talks in Moscow, which had not taken place since the summit in Sochi on October 31, 2022, Russian media announced that “at least two documents” would be signed. According to the Russian daily Kommersant, one of these documents was expected to be signed by the deputy prime ministers involved in a separate negotiation track, with a particular emphasis on reopening regional transportation connections as outlined in the trilateral statement issued on January 12, 2021, signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia (Kommersant, May 25). The other document was anticipated to be another joint statement issued by the leaders of the three countries.

However, the trilateral meeting did not deliver any signed documents or yield any major breakthrough. Some Azerbaijani media reported that the Armenian side was not interested in the adoption of any document (Qafqazinfo, May 25). The verbal battle between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the EAEU summit received more attention from observers. Here, Aliyev and Pashinyan, in the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other EAEU leaders, argued about the perception of “corridor,” which is a debatable topic as Armenia rejects this term in relation to the transportation passage widely referred to as the “Zangezur Corridor.” Aliyev reiterated to the Armenian leader that the use of this term does not contain any territorial claims against Armenia and that he uses this term in the same way when referring to the “North-South Corridor and East-West Corridor” (President.az, May 25).

That said, perhaps the most important outcome of the Moscow summit was the re-activation of the working group of both countries’ deputy prime ministers to discuss transportation projects. Following the trilateral summit, Putin noted that the sides were close to a final deal on re-opening transportation links and that the remaining issues were “purely technical” (President.az, May 25). On June 3, the working group met for the 12th time and reported to have reached a “common understanding” concerning “the implementation of concrete steps for the restoration and organization of the railway connection on the Arazdeyan–Julfa–Mehri–Horadiz route” (Apa.az, June 3).

The group statement avoided using the term “Zangezur Corridor,” which is widely used to refer to the aforementioned route. Both sides, nevertheless, reported “important progress” in talks about the “modality” of these transportation links without giving further details. Progress in this direction has also been observed in the increasing use of the Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin road by Armenians traveling in and out of the Karabakh region (Azernews, June 3).

In another positive move, which was commended by the US, Aliyev promised amnesty to the Armenian separatists in the Karabakh region if they disband their illegal entities and abide by Azerbaijani laws (Turan.az, May 28; Apa.az, May 31). The two sides also appear to be closer to an agreement on the exchange of one another’s exclaves that have remained in the territory of the other since the collapse of the Soviet Union (News.am, June 1).

In the meantime, on June 1, on the sidelines of the EPC summit, Aliyev and Pashinyan met again with the mediation of European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This format is not entirely supported by Azerbaijan due to the participation of Macron, since the political establishment of his country has almost always been supportive of Armenia (News.az, June 2). Nevertheless, in an apparent demonstration of goodwill in the peace process, Aliyev agreed to join the meeting, which was held informally in a cafeteria. The major outcome of the gathering was the announcement of the next summit of Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders via the mediation of Michel in Brussels on July 21 (Consilium.europa.eu, June 1).

Thus, in the run-up to the next ministerial meeting in Washington, the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks have been marked by significant dynamism and progress. In addition to the aforementioned advancements, the attendance of Pashinyan at the inauguration ceremony of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on June 3 for the first time in history marked a highly symbolic occasion (Armenpress.am, June 3). Thus, the potential is growing that Baku and Yerevan could sign a peace treaty in the near future if they can overcome the remaining challenges on this path (see EDM, May 23) and preserve the positive atmosphere that comes under threat by frequent, albeit small-scale, military clashes along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan (Mod.gov.az, June 1, 2, 3).

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/A-New-Chapter-In-The-Caucasus-Armenia-And-Azerbaijan-Make-Strides-Towards-Peace.html

Sports: From the Football Academy of Armenia all the way to the UEFA Champions League Final: Henrikh Mkhitaryan

Football Kentron
June 9 2023


Coppa Italia and Supercoppa Italiana champions Inter Milan will be facing the English Premier League and FA Cup champions Manchester City in one of the biggest stages in world football: the UEFA Champions League Final.

Brace yourselves for a tale of perseverance, skill, and the relentless pursuit of greatness as we unveil the years that shaped Mkhitaryan’s path to the grand European final this Saturday.

The midfielder has played a crucial role in his club’s journey to the final, scoring a notable goal in the first leg of the semi-finals against city rivals AC Milan.

His game time was cut short in the second leg because of a muscle injury, but he resumed training this week and he is contention to start the final.

According to UEFA’s FedEx Performance Tracker, Mkhitaryan took a huge jump in the tournament’s midfielders’ performance rankings after that match.

Even though he is 34 years old, Mkhitaryan is an integral part of Inter’s midfielders alongside Nicolò Barella and Hakan Çalhanoğlu, as well as wing backs Denzel Dumfries and Frederico Dimarco.

The Armenian ages like a fine wine.

This is not the first time Mkhitaryan has progressed to the finals in a European club competition.

In the 2016/17 season, he helped Manchester United beat Ajax by scoring goal to win the title.

In the 2018/19 season, Mkhitaryan played a key role in helping Arsenal to reach the Europa League final. However, he was unable to travel for security reasons as the final was being held in Baku, Azerbaijan. Arsenal were defeated by the finalist opponents Chelsea.

A few seasons later in 2021/22, the former Armenian national team captain went on to the finals of the newly established UEFA Europa Conference League with his former Italian side AS Roma. He was unexpectedly injured very early in the game and was subbed off. This time, his team was on the winning end.

He is the first Armenian to have won the Europa League and the Europa Conference League, as well as the first Armenian to score in the Champions League semi-finals.

Now, there is only one game left.

Can Mkhitaryan and his Inter teammates do it?

UEFA Champions League Final, Saturday, 10th of June, 23:00 Yerevan time.

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Armenia’s agriculture sector goes high tech

June 6 2023
By Clare Nuttall in Samarkand June 6, 2023

Two new factors are putting farmers under pressure in Armenia: climate change and a fall in the competitiveness of the country’s agricultural exports due to the appreciation of the dram. The response to both of these has been a sharp increase in investments into new agricultural technologies, as outlined by Deputy Economy Minister Arman Khojoyan. 

While both of these factors have negative effects on farmers, they have stimulated investment into robotics and smart agriculture technologies by farmers looking to increase productivity and make their products more competitive across a wider range of international markets. 

“Integration of robotics and technology in the agriculture sector, often referred to as precision agriculture and smart farming, has great potential to revolutionise the industry by increasing productivity, efficiency and sustainability. Armenia, with its very significant share of agriculture in GDP, can benefit from this investment,” Khojoyan told the EBRD annual meeting and business forum in Samarkand in May. 

"By leveraging robotics and automation, the tasks that were traditionally labour-intensive can easily become streamlined. Meanwhile the use of drones, sensors and data analytics can provide valuable insights on soil quality, crop health and yield predictably to enable farmers make data-driven decisions and optimise their production processes.”

Elaborating in an interview with bne IntelliNews on the sidelines of the event, Khojoyan said the government is supporting the process: “Armenian farmers are quite small, the lands are quite fragmented, so that is why efficiency is not that high in Armenia, and we are trying to increase that efficiency,” 

According to the deputy minister, growth in agricultural output accelerated in 2022, though he warned that there are “different kinds of shocks which are negatively affecting the agricultural sector, and climate change is one of them. Our activity is to stabilise the sector, not to allow the sector to decline.”

On top of that, the agriculture sector in Armenia, like those around the world, is under pressure from climate change. 

“One of the visible issues is the scarcity of water resources, and also the climate is changing and the vegetation is changing, so the traditional way of farming needs to be updated. This is also a new challenge for farmers [and they need] to have new information about all these changes and to apply it,” said Khojoyan. 

Price pressure 

At the same time, the Armenian dram has appreciated, driven up partly by the arrival of thousands of Russians fleeing mass mobilisation in their home country. This has eroded the competitiveness of Armenian exports, including food and agricultural products. 

“In the recent period, the Armenian national currency is experiencing rapid appreciation. In my opinion this can be the exact moment when the producers can benefit from investing in acquiring new technologies. We all understand that appreciation of the national currency in the short term also poses some negative effects but investing in technology has many advantages,” said Khojoyan. 

The Armenian government is intensively supporting farmers and producers to update their production capacities and apply frontier technologies. Khojoyan named some of the areas the government is supporting, such as setting up intensive orchards to diversify the fresh produce market, and introducing smart farming and innovative greenhouses. In the last two years the active portfolio of these government projects exceeds $600mn, the deputy minister said. 

“This technological advancement will enhance efficiency leading to increased productivity … Companies can increase efficiency, optimise their costs, have quality products, diversify their markets and be competitive in local and international markets,” he told bne IntelliNews

New tech sectors 

According to Khojoyan, currently many of the new technologies being adopted by Armenian farmers are from international companies, but some are emerging within Armenia too, adding a new dimension to the country’s already thriving tech industry. 

Asked about agritech companies within Armenia, Khojoyan said: “Yes, of course there are companies but these companies are quite small. We are currently creating an environment for these kind of companies to grow, joining efforts with the Ministry of High-Tech Industry, and also with the Agrarian University,” Khojoyan told bne IntelliNews

“Arm being very prominent in the IT industry, it’s strange that it still doesn’t provide sufficient input in the agriculture sector. However there are companies founded by Armenians which are providing agricultural services in the US market, such as IntelinAir, which analyses data on crop growth and diseases.” 

Khojoyan believes it is particularly important to involve young people in the agriculture sector in light of the challenges posed by climate change. 

“This is a global problem: youth are not very interested in the agriculture sector, but it will be an important sector for the future because the population is growing and because of climate change natural resources are decreasing.

“In order to tackle these kinds of challenges, it’s important to combine technology and agriculture and make it attractive for the youth to come and innovate in the sector.”

 

100 Years Ago, Martyrs of the Armenian Genocide Marched Straight to Heaven

The prisoners in Mardin Castle knew that to die for the One who died for us all is the greatest honor.

The prisoners in Mardin Castle were rounded up at nightfall. Soldiers called out their names, one by one, and tied them with ropes. Rings were pressed around the necks, and chains put around the wrists, of those thought to be Armenian. All of them stood like that, for several hours, until the soldiers had finished arranging them into columns and rows. They were marched out through the prison gate.

The prisoners were young and old. No distinction had been made by the authorities as to whether they were Catholic or Orthodox or Protestant. Those belonging to the Latin or Chaldean or Syriac Rites had been bound all the same. They were all Christians, and thus deemed enemies of the state.

Mamdooh Bek, the chief of police of Mardin, led the caravan at the front. He considered himself to be a hero, a warrior for his faith, for this. His desire to lead this march had been rendered feasible only after Hilmi Bey, the district governor just a few days prior, had been deposed for energetically protesting the treatment that the Christians of Mardin had been dealt — the former governor being transferred to a new post, over in Mosul. 

Ignatius Maloyan, the Armenian Catholic Archbishop of Mardin, was in chains at the back of the caravan. The bruises on his body, from beatings he’d endured over the last week, were still sore. The bruise on his face from the pistol-whipping dealt to him by Mamdooh Bek was a fading bluish-purple. His toenails were extracted. The recent thrashings he’d taken on the soles of his feet made him walk with a limp.

The archbishop had been loyal to his country. He’d urged his fellow Catholics to remain loyal as well. But the lot of Christians in the Ottoman Empire had taken a turn since the outbreak of the Great War. While young men still were dug in the trenches and dying yonder in Gallipoli, weapons had been planted in the cathedral here in Mardin to serve as “evidence” of a planned insurrection. The archbishop had been arrested, dragged into court in chains, and given the choice to convert to Islam or to die. The beatings had begun when he’d refused to convert.

The prisoners continued marching onward.

“The Christian residents who leave their houses,” shouted a familiar voice, that of the town crier, “will be amputated and put together with their co-religionists.” 

The prisoners, more than 400 in all, many priests among them, exited that castle which, much like the empire, had long been in disrepair. They trudged along the main street. The fingers and feet of those who’d had their nails extracted bled. Some of the men had broken bones, and gashes on their heads. 

They passed through the Muslim quarters of Mardin. Women came out from their homes and mocked them and laughed at them. Children giggled and threw stones at them. They kept on marching.

They passed through the Christian quarter. The streets were silent and clear. Residents wept and prayed behind closed doors, and by the railings of their roofs, as the prisoners passed by their houses. Mourning had made it so easy to forget that these men were being marched straight to Heaven. 

They approached the western gate. The monks and missionaries, those in Mardin who still were free, went up to the roofs to see their friends for one last time and say farewell. They wondered whether they themselves would soon share a similar destiny as their chained brethren, of imitating the Lord even in his Passion.

The monks and missionaries on that roof looked down upon the prisoners, recognizing the battered faces of some, and recognizing the face of Christ in all. There among those prisoners was Brother Léonard Melki, a Lebanese Capuchin friar, who’d been falsely accused of conspiring with the French government. He’d been a great promoter of the Third Order of St. Francis during his time in Mardin. He likewise had been offered the choice to convert or die. His torture began when he’d declined to convert. Blood was trickling from his toes and fingers.

Brother Léonard wondered as he left the city whether his old friend, Brother Thomas Saleh, a Maronite Catholic, and fellow Capuchin friar, was elsewhere suffering for the Lord’s sake in such a manner. The time for Brother Thomas’ martyrdom would come soon enough.

Those men up on the roof continued watching on until the backs of their brethren faded into the darkness of night.

The desert night was turning cold. The lights of Mardin faded behind them, until it looked as though a match had been lit behind them, and then disappeared altogether. The waning crescent moon hovered above them on this night of June 10, 1915. The stars, as many as the children of Abraham, surrounded sister moon in the firmament.

The shivering prisoners continued to march barefoot in the desert for several hours. Blood stained the sands beneath the wounded. The pain of it was near to blinding for some. Some of them stumbled and fell. Those who could no longer walk were supported by those who could. They reached Adercheck, a Kurdish village, in the early morning hours of Friday, June 11, the Feast of the Sacred Heart. 

Some of the villagers got out of their homes to see what all of the commotion was about. The bulk of the prisoners were escorted by the soldiers onward from there, followed by curious villagers, to nearby caves.

They stopped. Mamdooh Bek stood there before the prisoners. He read to them what he’d insisted was an imperial decree saying that all Christians were considered traitors and were to be sentenced to death. He assured them that amnesty would be granted to those who converted to Islam and that they’d be returned to Mardin. Those unwilling to convert would be executed within the hour.

The archbishop replied that he would prefer to die as a Christian than to live as a Muslim. He knelt and prayed that the men along with him would accept their martyrdom courageously. 

The vast majority of the prisoners knelt with the archbishop.

A few of the men remained standing, nodding their heads, agreeing to convert. Soldiers made gestures with their hands for them to go along with some of the Kurdish villagers who were present, to immediately be brought before the local sheik, that they may say the words: “I bear witness that there is no god but Allah, and Muhammad is the messenger of Allah.”

The soldiers made their preparations. 

The archbishop ordered his priests to circulate among the other prisoners. They heard the confessions of those who soon would die, absolving them, using their chained hands to make the sign of the cross. 

The archbishop took what bread he could find. He said the words of consecration and had his priests distribute the Body of Christ. This one last feast had become an occasion for joy. The prisoners knew then what all the holy martyrs before them had taught: that to die for the One who died for us all is the greatest honor.

Some of the soldiers marveled at the faith of the prisoners as they watched on.

Rage swelled up from the heart of Mamdooh Bek until it felt as though his head would burst. He was a man who preferred to be feared, never defied. He stood next to the archbishop at the designated site and then gave the order.

The blasting sounds of gunfire erupted and echoed. Clouds of smoke filled the air. The stench of gunpowder filled the nostrils of the violent men like an unholy incense. Blood splattered from the bodies of the lined-up prisoners as they fell limp onto the earth below. Soon enough, all of the prisoners were dead, save for one.

The archbishop had been allowed to watch all of this.

Mamdooh Bek looked at the archbishop. He said that it was his religious duty to offer one last chance to say the words of the Shahadah and convert.

“I've told you I shall live and die for the sake of my faith and religion,” the archbishop replied. “I take pride in the Cross of my God and Lord.”

Mamdooh Bek coldly drew out his pistol and fired a shot at the archbishop.

“My God!” the archbishop cried with his last breath, “have mercy on me; into your hands I commend my spirit.” He collapsed onto the ground and died.

As their bodies were being disposed of, the newest dwellers of Paradise were welcomed to their eternal home.

Christians throughout the Muslim World face severe persecution today. Little to no distinction ever gets made between Catholic, Orthodox and Protestant Christians by those who persecute them. 

In May of this year the Holy See added the 21 Coptic Christian men who’d been executed for their faith by the Islamic State on Feb. 15, 2015, to the Roman Martyrology.

Blessed Ignatius Maloyan, the Armenian Catholic Archbishop of Mardin, was beatified Oct. 7, 2001, by Pope John Paul II. He’d spent much energy encouraging devotion to the Sacred Heart, and was martyred on the Feast of the Sacred Heart in 1915. His feast day is on 11.

Blessed Léonard Melki, along with Blessed Thomas Saleh (a Maronite Catholic martyred in 1917), both of whom were Capuchin Friars, were beatified by Pope Francis on June 4, 2022. Their feast day is June 10.

All of you Holy Martyrs, pray for us! 

Congress Should Shut Down Biden’s Turkey-Sweden Quid Pro Quo

By Michael Rubin

AEIdeas

Secretary of State Antony Blinken may have denied any deal to trade Turkey F-16s in exchange for the lifting of Turkey’s veto on Sweden’s NATO accession, but no one told the White House that. Not only has President Joe Biden alluded to just such a deal, but also National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has apparently outlined the quid pro quo to key Congressional leaders.

On the surface, such a trade may seem both straightforward and logical: Turkey wants F-16s, the United States wants Sweden in NATO. Turkey has the ability to greenlight Sweden’s accession.

Biden and Sullivan may want to claim credit for a deal and bask in the glow of success, but it would be an illusion: Sweden’s accession under such circumstances would be a strategic disaster.

Consider:

  • The deal would reward President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s blackmail. Not only will Erdogan hold NATO hostage again, but other countries will also follow suit. In the past, Washington assumed NATO members would try to do the right thing; in the future, various governments will look at looming votes as an opportunity to win the lottery.
  • Sweden’s accession would be welcome, but its symbolic importance is minor. More important is European unity in the face of Russian aggression. That unity exists whether or not Sweden joins NATO. Sweden might just as easily act in concert with NATO without submitting to Turkish blackmail.
  • Nothing Sweden brings to NATO would be a game-changer. Certainly, Sweden’s handful of diesel submarines would be welcome, but they do not offer NATO a capability that would significantly change the operational environment. Finland is another matter: not only does it border Russia, but it also has more artillery pieces than the United Kingdom, France, or Germany.
  • The price Turkey demands from Sweden erodes the quality of Sweden’s democracy. It would be far better for the White House to encourage Turkey to adopt Swedish democracy than for it to encourage Sweden to bend toward Turkish autocracy. It is bad enough Turkey represses Kurdish identity; it should not demand Sweden do the same.
  • Upgrading Turkey’s F-16 fleet will do little to enhance NATO. Turkey does not use its jet fighters for NATO’s defense or to preserve regional stability; rather, it consistently uses its F-16s to bomb Syrian Kurds, Iraqi Yezidis, and threaten Greek islands. Biden and Sullivan should carefully consider both whether a photo-op welcoming Sweden into NATO is worth increasing the danger of an intra-NATO military clash or whether NATO can even survive such a fight.

Make no mistake: One day, NATO should welcome Sweden as a full member, but timing and circumstances matter. Congress is a co-equal branch of government. Its leaders—both Democrat and Republican—should balk at White House pressure to accede to a bad deal and a counterproductive quid pro quo.

A far better response would be to tell Sullivan that Congress will disallow new F-16s or upgrades to Turkey until Erdogan is gone and Turkey’s behavior changes. If that means tabling Sweden’s NATO accession, so be it. Plan B might be greater military cooperation between Sweden, the United States, and key NATO members. Such a response would mean all the military capability, none of the blackmail, and a more stable Europe.

Let Turkey fail

Opinion

Erdoğan pulls out of European summit

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

CHISINAU — A massive gathering of European leaders on Thursday has suffered its first high-profile casualty, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pulling out at the last minute.

The Turkish leader, who won five more years at the helm of his country in second-round elections on Sunday, will not travel to Moldova for the one-day summit, according to three officials involved in the preparations. 

The so-called European Political Community (EPC) — a new collective launched in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine — is meant to draw together European leaders beyond the EU. More than 40 European leaders will be present Thursday, including those from all 27 EU countries plus non-EU countries like Britain and Turkey, as well as the Western Balkan nations.  

The gathering, set to take place outside Chișinău, Moldova’s capital, is the second summit held under the EPC banner, following an inaugural meeting in Prague last October. 

Erdoğan attended that summit in the Czech capital but clashed with his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis during an end-of-summit dinner. 

Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkey’s politics for two decades, won the country’s election on Sunday, despite a strong showing by a coalition of opposition parties. 

The 69-year-old leader is expected to announce his new Cabinet on Friday with an inauguration scheduled for the following day. 

European leaders started arriving in the Moldovan capital of Chișinău Wednesday ahead of the summit, which is taking place in a castle and winery 35 kilometers outside the city.

Sweden charges man suspected of financing outlawed Kurdish group

A Turkish citizen is charged in Sweden for gun crimes and raising money for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Media attend a press conference held by the Swedish prosecution authority in Stockholm [File: Maja Suslin/TT News Agency via Reuters]

Swedish prosecutors have charged a Turkish citizen for gun crimes and raising money for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984.

Friday’s case has come at a sensitive time in Sweden’s relations with Turkey, which is holding up its application for NATO membership, in part because it has said Sweden harbours supporters of armed groups it considers to be “terrorists”.

Sweden’s prosecution authority said it was the first time anyone had been charged in the country with attempting to provide financing to the PKK, designated “a terrorist organisation” by Turkey, the European Union and the United States.

It said the man was suspected of aggravated extortion, serious gun crime and attempting to fund PKK.

“The investigation has given support for suspicions that the man was acting on behalf of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party,” the prosecution authority said in a statement.

According to the indictment, the man was part of an extensive organisation collecting money for the PKK and had contact with another Turkish citizen who was jailed in Germany for being a member of the armed group.

The man’s lawyer, Ilhan Aydin, said his client rejected the accusations of aggravated extortion and attempting to fund, but would accept a weapons charge of a lower grade.

Aydin also said he did not want the geopolitical situation to overshadow his client’s case.

“I hope my client does not become a piece in the game or the negotiations on NATO,” he said.

Sweden, which applied to join NATO last year following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, wants its membership ratified before the alliance’s summit in mid-July in Vilnius.

Only Turkey and Hungary have yet to approve the bid. Finland, which applied alongside Sweden and was initially blocked by Ankara, joined NATO in April.

Sweden said it has fulfilled all the conditions of a three-way pact with Turkey and Finland struck in Madrid in June last year to smooth its path to NATO membership.

But Turkey has said Sweden has not gone far enough to assuage its security concerns.

Talks between the two countries over NATO accession are due to restart next week.