Category: 2023

UK –

Imagine if Russia withdrew from all occupied Ukrainian territory, and Russian-speakers in the Donbas region and Crimea gave up separatism in return for autonomy and civic rights. Given Vladimir Putin’s thirst to annex much of Ukraine and his assault on Ukrainian national identity, such an outcome is at present far out of reach. But to much of the world it would seem a reasonable solution. 

 In the 35-year-long conflict between the south Caucasus states of Armenia and Azerbaijan, a settlement along these lines is starting to appear possible. On May 22, Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister, stated that he was ready to recognise Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated enclave in Azerbaijan. His chief condition was that the government in Baku should protect the rights and security of the roughly 120,000 Karabakh Armenians. 

 For his part, Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, said last week that he saw “a possibility of coming to a peace agreement, considering that Armenia has formally recognised Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan”. 

 A deal would send four messages to the world. First, it would end the oldest unresolved territorial dispute in the former Soviet Union, a sometimes ferociously fought conflict that began in 1988. Second, it would contribute stability to the south Caucasus, a fragile meeting point of civilisations where the EU, US, Russia, Turkey, Iran and China brush up uneasily against each other. Third, a deal would suggest that, despite the war in Ukraine and notwithstanding that their diplomatic efforts in the south Caucasus are not exactly co-ordinated, western governments and Russia may find it in their separate interests to settle a notoriously intractable conflict. 

 The fourth lesson is more revealing about the harsh realities of geopolitics. For one reason why a settlement is within sight is that Azerbaijan has gained the upper hand in its military struggle with Armenia. Doubtless this lesson will not be lost on Ukrainians. 

 During a war in 1991-1994, in which some 30,000 people were killed, Armenia seized control of Nagorno-Karabakh and, partly or completely, seven regions around it. It held about 13.6 per cent of the internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan. In a six-week war in 2020 that cost another 8,000 lives, Azerbaijani forces recaptured almost all the lost land. Since then, Baku has pressed home its advantage, inducing Pashinyan’s concession on Nagorno-Karabakh. 

 A peace settlement is by no means certain. At a meeting in Moscow on May 25, chaired by Putin, Pashinyan and Aliyev exchanged angry words over Baku’s decision to set up a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor. This is a highway that runs through Azerbaijan and is the only road connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. For the hard-pressed people of Nagorno-Karabakh, the checkpoint awakens old fears that Azerbaijan’s long-term objective is to ethnically cleanse the enclave of Armenians. 

 This points to another obstacle. Pashinyan’s concession has sparked outrage in Nagorno-Karabakh and across much of Armenian society, where the dream of a single political space uniting the enclave with Armenia appears to be falling apart. But the options of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are limited. Yerevan’s relations with Moscow are poor because of the refusal of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led military bloc, to take Armenia’s side in recent clashes with Azerbaijan. The US and EU support the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity — with guarantees for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

 Still, if the west and Russia can keep their antagonism over Ukraine from spilling into the south Caucasus, and if Azerbaijan calms the fears of the Karabakh Armenians, peace may be possible. It would be quite an achievement in a troubled world.  

 Faizan Hashmi  Published | 06:46 PM

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Self-described environmental activists in Azerbaijan who took part in the government-backed blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh are voicing discontent over their finances. 

On May 26, a group of Azerbaijani NGO heads assembled in front of the presidential administration office in Baku, protesting against what they called cuts in their state grants. 

The same people participated in a demonstration on a key road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia that lasted for 138 days and ended after it was made redundant by a new Azerbaijani customs checkpoint at the other end of the road.. 

From December 12 until April 28, the NGO representatives camped out in tents and periodically chanted slogans and brandished placards accusing the Armenian administration of Nagorno-Karabakh of "ecocide". 

What prompted the NGO heads to come forward was the disclosure of a list of winners of a state grant competition by the Agency for State Support for NGOs on the same day. Some did not get on the list while others got far less grant money than they asked for. 

Although there is no connection between the grant competition and the demonstrations at the Lachin-Stepanakert road, some clearly felt that they should be rewarded for the loyalty they showed the state in taking part in the blockade. 

One protestor – Matanat Asgargizi, chair of Public Union for Support for Soldier Families – said she was upset that her organization was granted only 8,000 manats (about $4705) for a painting contest on the theme of Shusha, a key Karabakh town. 

"We were the first ones to go [to the demonstrations]. We have been face-to-face with Russians [peacekeepers] and Armenians for weeks. They [authorities] say, 'Are you not ashamed for mentioning your presence in Shusha.' I don't think that I should be given 20,000 manats just because I was in Shusha. I am just wondering – why should these people who are always standing by their state be ignored?" she asked, in an interview with local news outlet Abzas Media. 

Another NGO head – Tahira Mammadova, who went viral on social media in the early days of the blockade for accidentally killing a pigeon - was also disgruntled over the size of her organization's grant. "They promised 15,000 manats (about $8,820) for one project, but they didn't allocate it. And for a film about a Shusha martyr they allocated only 6,000 manats (about $3,530). This 6,000 manats is like an insult to me," she told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani service. (She did not take part in the protest in Baku.)

A member of the Board of Supervisors of the Agency for State Support for NGOs, Gunel Safarova, said the grants were cut because of the low quality of the pitched projects. "Besides, linking participation in Shusha with participating in the grant competition raises serious questions. The agency did not organize those demonstrations. They were a voluntary action. People who went there voluntarily did not go to later ask for grants. This is very absurd," she told Abzas.