Russia – main obstacle in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan

May 8 2023

In autumn 2020, as soon as the military actions between Armenia and Azerbaijan were over, Russia deployed 2000 troops there, supposedly for “peacekeeping”.

This allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to demonstrate that he had influence in the South Caucasus and to manipulate Armenian separatists to a greater extent for his own purposes.

The Kremlin has projected itself as the major mediator in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict since 1994 when the first Karabakh war was over.

In fact, Russia had initially been interested in freezing the conflict – that is the only way it could maintain influence in the South Caucasus and its military bases in Armenia.

Moreover, calling itself “the only guarantor of security in Karabakh”, Moscow was the largest exporter of weapons into both countries in 2011-2020.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia accounted for 94 per cent of arms imported into Armenia and 60 per cent into Azerbaijan.

It is the freezing of the negotiation process for 30 years and Russia’s massive deliveries of weaponry into the region that created the preconditions for the resumption of full-scale hostilities in autumn 2020.

For the last three years, Moscow has been carrying on with the same tactic of delaying the negotiation process.

Besides maintaining the influence and military bases in South Caucasus, having leverage in Baku is now becoming especially important for the Kremlin. The reason is that in 2021-2023 Azerbaijan became one of the major suppliers of energy resources into the EU and could act as an alternative to Russia in this capacity. Together with Tehran, Moscow is seeking to prevent Yerevan’s ultimate reorientation toward the West, which happened to Georgia.

Putin is taking advantage of Armenian puppet-separatists in Karabakh. And he has done the same before with Ossetians and Abkhazians in Georgia as well as the supporters of “the Russian World” in Crimea and Donbas. This allows Moscow to maintain the military presence in South Caucasus in the same way as in the Georgian separatist region of South Ossetia or in the Eastern region of Moldova, that is, Transnistria. Prior to the full-scale aggression of 2022 the same had been happening in the pro-Russian enclave in the east of Ukraine.

Ousting Russia from the relations settlement process

Given Russia’s destructive role, the West became more involved in the negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia after the 2020 Karabakh war.

For the past three years, the EU in the form of European Council President Charles Michel, and the US represented by the US secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been the initiators of most meetings between the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The most recent meeting was that of Blinken with the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington DC on May 1.

While in the past the representative of Washington, Blinken, only used to encourage the parties’ direct communication, he now admits that without the active engagement of the USA the peace process will be undermined by Russia, Iran and Armenia in every possible way. According to the US news outlet The Wall Street Journal “the influential friends of the Armenian-American community such as Senator Menendez and member of the House of Representatives, Schiff, are eager to punish any American officials who cover the cooperation between Armenia, Russia and Iran.”

In this context, according to EUreporter and the major media sources of UkraineRomaniaBulgaria andLithuania,Armenia serves as virtually the largest hub for supplies of sanctioned goods, including military equipment for Russia, and it is also the largest logistic link between Russia and Iran. Using Armenia for delivery of Iranian attack drones and missiles for attacks on Ukrainian cities is also reported

https://sofiaglobe.com/2023/05/08/russia-main-obstacle-in-negotiations-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan/

Hamazkayin W.R.L.G. presents Armenian Woman and Mother 5/11/23

Hi Everyone,

Hamazkayin Western Region Literary Group presents Armenian Woman and Mother panel discussion and guest speaker Nora Chitilian and Rev. Vatche Ekmkjian on Thursday, May 11, 2023, at 8pm (PST), 11pm (EST), (Armenia, Friday 7am) FREE on Zoom. Contact Vania for information (818)216-9935 or email us at [email protected]

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US calls on Azerbaijan to reopen Lachin corridor

IRAN FRONT PAGE
May 1 2023

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a telephone conversation with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, discussing the importance of reopening of the Lachin Corridor for commercial and private vehicles, US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller announced in a statement.

“Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev today to underscore the importance of Azerbaijan-Armenia peace discussions and pledged continued US support,” the statement reads.

“Secretary Blinken shared his belief that peace was possible,” it said.

“He also expressed the United States’ deep concern that Azerbaijan’s establishment of a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor undermines efforts to establish confidence in the peace process, and emphasized the importance of reopening the Lachin Corridor to commercial and private vehicles as soon as possible,” the statement added.

Azerbaijan’s presidential press office said in a statement later that “President Ilham Aliyev noted [that] Azerbaijan supports the peace agenda and that Azerbaijan had been the initiator of starting peace treaty talks and normalization of relations with Armenia.”

“With respect to setting up the ‘Lachin’ checkpoint on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border, President Ilham Aliyev said that the checkpoint had been set up in accordance with Azerbaijan’s sovereign rights and all international rules,” the statement from the Azerbaijani president’s press office reads.

“The Azerbaijani President underlined that the aim was to ensure control rather than restrict movement as passage is already allowed through the checkpoint,” the statement added.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna stated last Friday after a meeting with her Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan that Azerbaijan’s deployment of a checkpoint in the Lachin Corridor violates the agreements that Yerevan and Baku currently have in place.

Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan stated on April 28 that Yerevan had no plans to hold talks with Baku about unblocking the Lachin Corridor, since this issue was settled under the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020.

The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated on September 27, 2020. On November 9, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint statement on the full cessation of hostilities. The sides stopped at their positions at that moment, a number of districts went under Baku’s control, and Russian peacekeepers were deployed at the contact line and at the Lachin Corridor.

On December 12, 2022, a group of Azerbaijani activists claiming to be environmentalists blocked the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and the place where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed.

Baku stated that blocking the road was not the goal of the protest and civilian vehicles could freely move in both directions. However, Yerevan slammed the activity as a provocation by the Azerbaijani authorities aimed at creating a humanitarian disaster in the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Pashinyan pointed out that Nagorno-Karabakh was facing food shortages due to the blocking of the corridor. On December 14, Armenia requested that the European Court of Human Rights compel Azerbaijan to unblock the Lachin Corridor.

Nagorno-Karabakh residents ‘tricked’ into passing Azerbaijani checkpoint

May 1 2023
 1 May 2023

An Azerbaijani border guard inspects a vehicle at the checkpoint on the Hakiri Bridge. Image via ITV.

The authorities in Stepanakert have accused the Russian peacekeepers of tricking residents of Nagorno-Karabakh into passing through the Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, falsely promising that they would not have to undergo checks by Azerbaijani border troops.

The accusation comes after footage appeared to show Armenian vehicles passing through the checkpoint, with Azerbaijani border control officers inspecting their vehicles and documents. 

‘As can be seen from the presented footage, people’s border crossing is organised in a neat and polite manner’, Azerbaijan’s ITV reported from the scene. 

‘Thus, the claims of the Armenian officials regarding the “ethnic cleansing” of the Karabakh Armenians and the “blocking” of the Lachin road are nothing more than false propaganda’, the pro-government media went on. 

Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have largely been blocked from entering or exiting the region since mid-December, when Azerbaijani-government-supported ‘eco-activists’ blocked the Lachin Corridor near Shusha (Shushi).

The Azerbaijani government and the protesters themselves insisted they were independent and demonstrating against environmental damage in Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo: Trend.

Despite the 2020 ceasefire agreement stipulating that the corridor be controlled by the Russian peacekeeping force, on 23 April, Azerbaijani border troops moved in to set up a checkpoint on the corridor at the Armenian border.

Soon after, the eco-activists announced they were ending their action. However, on 29 April, the authorities in Stepanakert said the protesters had been replaced by Azerbaijani police near Shusha as well.

Mounting criticism of Russia

Shortly after the video of the inspection appeared online, Nagorno-Karabakh officials dismissed it as a ‘cheap show’. 

‘The people are from villages near the checkpoint under double blockade and were travelling with the support of peacekeepers, with guarantees of not being bothered’, Artak Beglaryan, an adviser to the State Minister, wrote on Twitter late on Sunday. 

Beglaryan referred to the villages of Mets Shen, Hin Shen, Lisagor, and Yeghtsahogh in the Shusha region of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The villages were cut off from the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh after the blockade near Shusha began, and are now separated from Armenia by the new customs checkpoint.

[Read on OC Media: The villages of the Lachin Corridor face ‘double blockade’]

Nagorno-Karabakh’s State Minister Gurgen Nersisyan also issued a statement on Sunday, stating that residents stuck in Goris ‘turned to Russian peacekeepers’, who assured them in advance that ‘there will be no control interference by Azerbaijanis’. 

Nersisyan said the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh were waiting for the Lachin Corridor to again be ‘controlled exclusively by Russian peacekeepers’.

Yerevan has also criticised Azerbaijani control over the corridor, calling on Russia to ‘finally fulfil its obligation’ under the 2020 ceasefire agreement and to lift the blockade of the Lachin Corridor. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzyan stated last week that Armenia would not take part in the negotiations over the status of the Lachin Corridor, placing responsibility on Russia. 

Moscow has remained mild in their criticism of the checkpoint and the blockade of the Lachin Corridor since 12 December.

Russia’s failure to regain control of the corridor has led to growing criticism in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The authorities in Stepanakert have avoided directly criticising Russia. 

But an apparent shift on 30 April, the Nagorno-Karabakh Foreign Ministry mentioned the support and participation of Soviet forces in the 1991 Operation Ring, which saw the forcible displacement of Armenian residents of several villages in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The authorities in Stepanakert declined to issue a statement on the anniversary of the start of the operation last year, and their statement in 2021 mentioned only the Azerbaijani authorities as responsible. A statement by the Armenian Parliament in 2021 also did not mention Russia, triggering criticism from some in Armenia, and accusations of ‘falsifying’ history. 

 For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.

https://oc-media.org/nagorno-karabakh-residents-tricked-into-passing-azerbaijani-checkpoint/

Antony Blinken Dials Azerbaijan President To Discuss Reopening Of Lachin Corridor

May 1 2023
US News

 

| Written By

Vidit Baya


US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a telephonic conversation with the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev deliberated upon the significance of restoring the Lachin Corridor for commercial and private vehicles, US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement. "Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev today to underscore the importance of Azerbaijan-Armenia peace discussions and pledged continued US support. Secretary Blinken shared his belief that peace was possible," the statement read. 

The statement added, "he also expressed the United States’ deep concern that Azerbaijan’s establishment of a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor undermines efforts to establish confidence in the peace process, and emphasized the importance of reopening the Lachin Corridor to commercial and private vehicles as soon as possible."

The press office of the President of Azerbaijan in a statement said, "President Ilham Aliyev noted [that] Azerbaijan supports the peace agenda and that Azerbaijan had been the initiator of starting peace treaty talks and normalisation of relations with Armenia."

The statement further read, "With respect to setting up the ‘Lachin’ checkpoint on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border, President Ilham Aliyev said that the checkpoint had been set up in accordance with Azerbaijan’s sovereign rights and all international rules. The Azerbaijani President underlined that the aim was to ensure control rather than restrict movement as [the] passage is already allowed through the checkpoint."

Following a meeting with her Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan last Friday, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna declared that Azerbaijan's installation of a checkpoint in the Lachin Corridor violates the existing agreements between Yerevan and Baku. On April 28, Armenia's Foreign Minister Mirzoyan said that since the Lachin Corridor issue had already been resolved by the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020, Yerevan had no plans to discuss it with Baku.

On September 27, 2020, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh got worse. A joint statement on the complete cessation of hostilities was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on November 9, 2020. At that point, the parties halted at their positions, Baku took control of a number of neighbourhoods, and Russian troops were stationed along the contact line and in the Lachin Corridor.

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/us-news/antony-blinken-dials-azerbaijan-president-to-discuss-reopening-of-lachin-corridor-articleshow.html

US Hosts Peace Talks with Armenia, Azerbaijan

Voice of America
May 1 2023
May 01, 2023 10:39 AM

The United States is pledging support for peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia and renewing its calls for an immediate reopening of the Lachin corridor to commercial and private vehicles.

Early Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds separate meetings with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in Arlington, Virginia.

Blinken then meets with both Mirzoyan and Bayramov for bilateral peace negotiations at the diplomatic facility near the State Department.

In recent months, tensions between the two neighboring, former Soviet republics have increased over Azerbaijan’s blockade of the Lachin corridor, which is the only land route giving Armenia direct access to the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The State Department had voiced “deep concern” that Azerbaijan’s establishment of a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor undermines efforts for peace talks.

Monday’s meetings come after Blinken’s call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Sunday, when the top U.S. diplomat reiterated Washington’s call to reopen the land route.

A spokesperson from Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Mirzoyan’s working visit to the United States is to discuss “the agreement on normalization of relations” with Azerbaijan.

The two countries have had a decades-long conflict involving the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is inside Azerbaijan but populated mainly by ethnic Armenians.

The Lachin Corridor allows supplies from Armenia to reach the 120,000 ethnic Armenians in the mountainous enclave and has been policed by Russian peacekeepers since December of 2020.

The situation has left those ethnic Armenian residents in Nagorno-Karabakh without access to essential goods and services, including life-saving medication and health care, according to Amnesty International. The rights group said Azerbaijan’s government has failed its human rights obligations by taking no action to lift the blockade.

Azerbaijan maintains the land route is open for humanitarian delivery, emergency services, and peacekeepers.

Some material in this report came from Reuters.


https://www.voanews.com/a/us-hosts-peace-talks-with-armenia-azerbaijan-/7073539.html

Nagorny Karabakh | Peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington

May 1 2023

(Washington) The United States is hosting difficult peace talks in Washington on Monday between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed enclave of Nagorny Karabakh.

The discussions, under the aegis of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, are supposed to last until Thursday in the presence of the heads of diplomacy of the two countries, the Armenian Ararat Mirzoyan and the Azerbaijani Djeyhoun Baïramov.

The two Caucasian countries clashed in two wars in the early 1990s and in 2020 for control of Nagorny Karabakh, a mountainous region mostly populated by Armenians that seceded from Azerbaijan three decades ago.

Tensions, already high, redoubled when Baku announced ten days ago that it had set up a first road checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin corridor, the only axis linking Armenia to the separatist enclave already subject to a months-long blockade that caused power shortages and blackouts.

Armenia considered this a violation of the ceasefire negotiated with Azerbaijan.

These negotiations under American mediation come a few days after a tour of the region last week by the head of French diplomacy, Catherine Colonna.

She urged Azerbaijan to immediately restore “unhindered traffic along the Lachin Corridor”, a vital route in this enclave of Nagorny Karabakh, and said she believed in a peaceful settlement despite deep differences between the belligerents.

Mr. Blinken, who is also particularly active on this file, was to meet Monday behind closed doors with the protagonists gathered in a conference center on behalf of former Secretary of State George Shultz, near the federal capital.

A U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity said Monday he expected “frank discussions.”

“Our goal is to make sure ministers sit down at the table and talk to each other” for several days, he added, in an attempt to achieve “a just and lasting peace.” “.

The negotiations relate specifically to “an agreement on the normalization of relations” between the two countries, he further indicated, stressing that “all issues are discussed”.

Blinken, who has been advocating for “direct dialogue” for months, discussed US support for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process in separate conversations with their leaders over the weekend. .

To Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, he “expressed the deep concern of the United States over Azerbaijan’s erection of a roadblock at the entrance to the Lachin Corridor that could undermine efforts to build confidence in the peace process,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.

Mr. Blinken “stressed the importance of reopening the Lachin Road to commercial and private vehicles as soon as possible,” the statement added.

He told Mr Aliyev of “his belief that peace is possible”.

The day before, Mr. Blinken had also spoken with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the State Department said.

The head of American diplomacy has maintained contact at regular intervals with the leaders of the two countries.

He has already participated in two trilateral meetings last November, then last February on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, without these discussions leading to an agreement.

For its part, Russia deployed in 2020 in Nagorny Karabakh a contingent of peacekeepers supposed to ensure circulation on the Lachin corridor, but its isolation on the international scene due to the war in Ukraine limits its room for maneuver.

The United States and the European Union have thus imposed themselves as mediators in the process of normalization between Baku and Yerevan.


Azerbaijani "activists" end blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh

May 1 2023
May 1, 2023

Azerbaijani self-proclaimed environmental activists have ended their 4.5-month demonstration on the Lachin-Stepanakert road, thus lifting the blockade of the road which connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. 

The blockade became redundant after Azerbaijan installed a border checkpoint at the opposite end of the road on April 23. 

Azerbaijani media reported on April 28 that the activists decided to temporarily suspend their demonstration following a meeting with Aydin Karimov, the Azerbaijani president's special representative in Shusha. Karimov reportedly asked them to disperse since "a new situation has emerged" following the checkpoint's installation. 

The blockade began on December 12, 2022, when the self-proclaimed environmental activists began staging a sit-in protest on the road near the town of Shusha, in the Azerbaijan-controlled part of Nagorno-Karabakh. The activists, whose composition changed regularly over the course of the blockade, said they were protesting against the exploitation of natural resources in Nagorno-Karabakh by the de facto Armenian authorities and their transportation to Armenia. 

Though the Azerbaijani government claimed it had no links to the protesters, the blockade was clearly part of a broader strategy to make life difficult for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. It prevented most Armenians from being able to travel in or out of the territory and greatly reduced the flow of goods there, driving up prices. 

Neither the blockade nor the establishment of the checkpoint were impeded by the Russian peacekeepers, who are supposed to be the sole providers of security on the road under the peace deal that ended the 2020 Second Karabakh War. 

A few hours after announcing their decision, the eco-activists released a statement praising the checkpoint. "This decisive step aimed at preventing illegality in the territories of Azerbaijan means that the participants of the demonstration have partially achieved their goals." 

It went on: "We declare that our demands that the command of the peacekeeping contingent stop the illegal exploitation of mineral deposits in the territories of Azerbaijan where the Russian peacekeeping contingent is temporarily located and ensure the monitoring of environmental and other consequences remain in effect, and that if these demands are not met, we reserve the right to resume the demonstration!" 

Meanwhile, Azerbaijani media published footage from the newly established checkpoint at the border, which purports to show Armenian citizens going through passport control and having their vehicles examined.

https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijani-activists-end-blockade-of-nagorno-karabakh

If Armenia Wants Western Defense Support, Doctrine And Partner Engagement Reform Must Happen Now

Global Security Review
May 1 2023

Armenia cannot protect the indigenous Nagorno-Karabakh people and Republic of Armenia without a competent vanguard. The Armenian Ministry of Defense can continue to rely on Russia, but will Moscow come to Armenia’s aid during another major attack? Probably not.

Armenia’s biggest vulnerability is that it relies on Russia for defense, which has been a noncommittal security guarantor since at least 2016’s Four Day War. After Armenia was attacked by Azerbaijan on sovereign territory, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pleaded for help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian dominated defense treaty alliance. In response the CSTO led sent a civilian delegate on “fact finding mission” damaged areas.

Following the week of attacks U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visited Yerevan and stated  Azerbaijan attack as “illegal and deadly”. This diplomatic serendipity to Armenia was a tremendous step for Washington’s advancing relations with Yerevan. However, the Speaker of the House is only one significant leader in the U.S. Government. Nations and non-state actors do not begin formal bilateral cooperation with the U.S. overnight. Cooperation requires many actors in diplomacy, private sector, military, law enforcement, lawmakers, and intelligence, to name some, who share common interest.

The U.S. probably has interests to work with Armenia due to shared democratic values, a bustling tech sector which cooperates with American companies, and diaspora members who carry a significant voice in domestic politics. Armenia very likely has interests to work with the U.S. for the sake of maintaining its sovereignty.  Yet one major point of concern for cooperation with Washington is that only Armenia recognizes the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) based on the Soviet Oblast’s referendum in the 1990s. The rest of the world, including Russia and the U.S., recognize Stalin’s redrawn borders placing the Armenian dominate population firmly within Baku’s authority.

The following are opportunities for Yerevan to press for its highest defense needs while soliciting the White House, Pentagon, and Congress for security assistance. Engaging these American actors probably will take more time, which is a luxury Yerevan does not have. Warm weather in the Caucasus is here again and Azerbaijan may attack again.

The most significant threat Armenia faces from Azerbaijan are Turkish-made TB-2 drones (UAVs). According to some war fighting experts, the TB-2 and other drones give Azerbaijan a tremendous attack advantage, providing air-to-ground missile fire, while simultaneously giving real time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to troops. The Turkish-made drone was so successful after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War against Armenian procured Russian defense systems that Ukraine decided to use the same weapons system in its war against Russia. Azerbaijan’s seemingly uncontested attack capability from the air can strike infantry vehicles, tanks, and deny logistics to the front lines.  Judging from sources online, Armenian Armed Forces and Nagorno-Karabakh Self Defense Forces do not seem to have a viable alternative to counter this great threat from the air.

Yerevan needs to understand that only IADS are the most capable counter to Azerbaijan’s threat from the air. To oversimplify, there are several air defense systems which can deny a threat including, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), surface to air missiles (SAMs), air artillery guns (AAGs), and air-to-air denial from jets.

One option for Yerevan’s new IADS is the Mistral, a French MANPADS which can counter Azeri threats from the air. It operates in many countries outside France, such as Cyprus, Georgia, Serbia, and others. Although the Mistral has yet to be proven in combat against Turkish drones, it could provide a barrier in the air against Azerbaijan’s greatest weapons. France is the highest favored country by Armenians, according to a U.S. think tank poll, and President Macron’s pro-Armenian rhetoric could lead to an air defense deal. As the TB-2 and other Turkish UAVs are some of the most popular in the world today, a counter weapons system would arguably find great demand.

Every Armenian engineer and defense manufacturer should focus on IADS procurement, and domestic research and development right now, from tracking incoming threats to eliminating them.

It logically follows that Russian warfighting doctrine heavily influences Armenian warfighting doctrine. Both borrow from the Soviet Union. In 2011, then-Commanding General of the U.S. Army Europe Mark Hertling and an unnamed Russian General held a conversation on training personnel. General Hertling told his counterpart that without an effective non-commissioned officer (NCO) corps, Russian troops will never be trained effectively. Sure enough, lack of Russian NCOs have been one of the biggest operational issues during their Ukraine campaign. Russian NCOs “Are not in charge of tactics,” Russian military expert Michael Kofman opined to American defense news outlet Defense One “That’s why the Russian military is officer top-heavy. The officer corps handles all those issues that NCOs might.”

Armenia’s conscript-dependent military may desire to emulate the principles of a “professional military” (or “all-volunteer military” – these terms are used interchangeably). Yet, a significant overhaul in doctrine with war potentially imminent likely requires much more dedication in time, resources, and training to overcome critical personnel vulnerabilities. Yerevan can instead task its Ministry of Defense to train a robust NCO corps borrowing from Western doctrine such as the U.S. Call them, for example “Vartan’s Volunteers”, and establish prestige with joining a volunteer all-year NCO corps.

U.S. Medal of Honor Recipient and Afghanistan War Veteran Clint Romesha offered thoughts on what makes efficient NCOs to Task and Purpose, an American military news outlet,

While officers are the ones who put the plan together, it’s those enlisted leaders, the NCOs, who implement it. Even before those orders come down from the officers, the NCOs are moving proactively and preparing the troops, and they are usually the ones fighting with their junior soldiers on the front lines, leading them in combat.

This is not to suggest that Armenian NCOs, officers, or others are not competent. Rather, as some Armenian analysts call for Armenia to become a “Garrison State”, a strong, modern, defense doctrine needs to have “suits” (political and private sector), “stars” (generals and commissioned officers), and “stripes” (NCOs and conscripted) all understand their responsibilities and carry it out effectively. Immediate reform with NCO corps could be a short-term improvement to better improve command and control from the bottom-up, while doctrine is reformed top-down.

For recruitment and conscription guidance, Yerevan can look to nations which have successful programs. Singapore’srelations with Washington are strong and likewise with Yerevan. Singapore’s military has extensively trained with the U.S. and could probably provide insight on personnel, training, and logistics from a civilian to solider mentality. Furthermore, Armenia can utilize contractors from eclectic backgrounds, such as diaspora Armenians from U.S., France, Russia, Lebanon, Greece, or elsewhere. The Armenian government could expand its robust diaspora work-live programs for contractors to train conscripted soldiers, thereby increasing the rate of trained civilians. Moreover, a diaspora group of military experts could perhaps work with the Ministry of Defense as an affiliate council to study and suggest micro and macro-Armenian military inquiries.

Above all, Yerevan must think beyond “pro-Moscow” or “anti-Moscow”. The best militaries in the world borrow strategies, doctrine, operational planning, and more from others to enhance assets to their greatest potential. They do not prepare to fight the last war.

India’s major arms deal to Armenia may be the first step in a blossoming Armenian relationship. Azerbaijan is strongly allied with Pakistan. India and Pakistan historically share animosity.  Moreover, India views Armenia as a vital link to for its trade route from Iran through the Black Sea region. Indian Mountain Brigades are some of the best mountain troops in the world. It can be argued that Indian President Modhi could find training Armenia for combat in high terrain to test his best operational and tactical methods for the ongoing challenges with China in their own disputed territory.

French President Macron and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have spoken over the phone many times since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. French Sniper Schools are some of the most well-respected institutions in the world. French sniper training to Armenian long-range fighters could prove to be vital for another defensive conflict judging from the rugged terrain and long lines of sight within Armenian territory.

South Korea is a nation which always must consider border security. Perhaps Armenia could learn from South Korean defense against neighboring North Korea, utilizing training programs, expertise on surveillance and counter surveillance, mining, reconnaissance, and communications to headquarters from the forward line of troops.

Yerevan needs to look beyond Russian suppliers for equipment and arms procurement. Diplomatic loyalty to allies and financial cost can often be problematic factors for nations who desire to bulwark defense capabilities. If Armenia’s ultimate goal is to earn Washington’s trust and purchase arms from the American private sector, Yerevan should engage US friendly countries to procure “surplus” while diaspora and Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs press American private companies and Congress to procure from the “source”.

Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan declined in relations during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War when Saudi Arabia called for peace instead affirming the Azeri position on territorial claims. Saudi Arabia might be under the impression that a crippled Armenia would mean Turkish dominance over the Caucasus region, and therefore may be inclined to send equipment and defensive weapons to Armenia. Yerevan can argue to Riyadh, perhaps making a case that a Turkish dominated Caucasus region would mean that Sunni Muslim nations in the central Asian steppe would be more inclined to follow Turkey rather than Saudi Arabia.

Greece shares over 2,000 years of mostly positive relations with Armenia. Today, Athens confronts hostile rhetoric from Turkey’s President Erdogan. In 2020, Greece accused Turkish troops of making an incursion within Greek territory. In 2022, Athens sent millions of dollars in defense equipment to Ukraine, according to a speech given by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to the U.S. Congress. A revamped Greek military considering perceived Turkish aggression and NATO duties to Ukraine could also aid Armenia.

Brazil just concluded the closest election in its history. Armenia can play to the new President Lula da Silva under the guise as the first Christian nation who desires to prevent another genocide on the grounds of protecting democracy and human rights. Lula may want a quick foreign policy victory as an ecumenical issue while Brazil remains divided domestically. The small but impactful Brazilian-Armenian diaspora can be utilized to this degree.

Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Christian minority (which shares ties to Armenian Apostolic Christians) recently suffered a tragic deadly loss of 41 believers in a fire. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi may be seeking an opportunity of good will to his non-Muslim supporters, assisting Armenia could be one. Furthermore, Egyptian-Turkish relations have gone through a rough patch since 2013. Yerevan could leverage Egypt if El-Sisi desires to press Turkey in the tense Eastern Mediterranean.

The above are just a few examples. Yerevan should indiscriminately look to the broader US community of allies. Yet most important, the Armenian Diaspora should focus all efforts on one primary goal: earning the trust of the US military defense industry and carry out private sector deals to Yerevan.

The Armenian Diaspora’s extensive networks were instrumental in pushing the recognition of Armenian Genocide by the Executive Branch, Legislative Branch, and state governments. Yet for all the Diaspora’s merits to raise awareness in history, new history can arguably be made if Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are ethnically cleansed from their homes. Armenian Diaspora can use their tremendously organized body to engage U.S. blue-chip defense contractors. Diaspora education can encourage the American private sector to push Congress for Yerevan to eventually procure American equipment. Once permission is granted, private sector defense contractors can immediately begin selling systems to the now-democratic former Soviet republic for self-defense purposes.

Jack Dulgarian is an independent analyst focusing on security, cultural, political, and economic issues in Eastern Europe and the Near East. He has worked in the defense industry, Capitol Hill, and a refugee humanitarian foundation based out of Athens, Greece.

AFP: US hosts Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks

May 1 2023
    Léon BRUNEAU

The United States hosted negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Monday, seeking to quell recent tension over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The two sides have gone to war twice, in 1990 and 2020, leaving tens of thousands dead, and clashes regularly erupt over the territory, an Armenian-majority region inside Azerbaijan.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoya and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov before four days of talks at a State Department facility outside Washington.

On April 23 Azerbaijan announced it had set up a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, the only land link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, sparking an angry response from Yerevan.

Armenia views the move as a violation of the cease-fire negotiated between the two sides.

Blinken spoke Sunday with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, expressing concerns about the checkpoint, which he said "undermines efforts to establish confidence in the peace process," according to State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

Blinken "emphasized the importance of reopening the Lachin corridor to commercial and private vehicles as soon as possible," Miller said in a statement.

Speaking on grounds of anonymity Monday, a US official said the talks aim more at "an agreement on normalization of relations" rather than a peace treaty.

"Our goal is to make sure the ministers can sit down and talk to each other," the official said.

The United States expects the two sides to have a forthright and frank discussion, the official said, adding "all the issues are being discussed."

– Pressure to remove checkpoint –

Moscow brokered a ceasefire between Yerevan and Baku after the latest bout of fighting in 2020, and posted peacekeepers along the Lachin corridor.

With Russia bogged down in Ukraine and unwilling to strain ties with Azerbaijan's key ally Turkey, the United States and European Union have sought to steer a thaw in ties.

France's Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna visited the two countries last week aiming to cool down tensions over the border checkpoint.

She visited Baku and then Yerevan, urging Azerbaijan to restore "unhindered movement" through the Lachin corridor.

In Yerevan she said in a news conference that Armenia's territorial integrity must be respected.

"The purpose of the visit is to reaffirm France's support for the Armenian government and people," Colonna said.

But Azerbaijan reiterated that it had set up a checkpoint on "Azerbaijan's territory."

Colonna said it was important for Armenia and Azerbaijan to resume negotiations to secure a resolution to their decades-long standoff.

"We encourage you to resolutely take this path," Colonna said, adding this was "the only way to achieve a just and lasting peace."

Blinken has already taken part in two trilateral meetings with the two Caucasus rivals, in November last year and then again in February on the margins of the international security conference in Munich, Germany.

On Saturday Blinken spoke with Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, emphasizing the importance of peace discussions and pledging continued US support.

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https://news.yahoo.com/us-hosts-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-172556528.html