Peace deal ‘within reach’ in Armenia-Azerbaijan talks

May 5 2023
Paul HANDLEY

AFP: A peace deal to end Armenia and Azerbaijan's three-decade-old dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave is "within reach" after four days of talks in Washington, US top diplomat Antony Blinken said Thursday.

The discussions between Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov did not result in a deal to end the territorial conflict between the two ex-Soviet republics, but Blinken said progress had been made.

"The two sides have discussed some very tough issues over the last few days, and they've made tangible progress on a durable peace agreement," the secretary of state said.

"I hope that they see and I believe that they do, as I do, that there is an agreement within sight, within reach," he said.

Blinken added later that the two sides "demonstrated a sincere commitment" to normalizing relations and ending their longstanding conflict.

"Both Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed in principle to certain terms and have a better understanding of one another's positions on outstanding issues," he said.

The two countries put out identical statements following the talks, saying they had laid out their positions on normalization.

"The Ministers and their teams advanced mutual understanding on some articles of the draft bilateral Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations," the statements said.

Both sides acknowledged, however, "that the positions on some key issues remain divergent."

Armenia and Azerbaijan were both republics of the Soviet Union and gained their independence when it broke up in 1991.

The two sides have gone to war twice over disputed territories, mainly Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority-Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan.

Tens of thousands were killed in the wars, one lasting six years and ending in 1994, and the second in 2020, which ended in a Russia-negotiated peace deal.

But clashes have broken out regularly since then.

Azerbaijan injected new tensions last week when it placed a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, the only land link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia views the move as a violation of a ceasefire negotiated between the two sides.

– 'The last mile' –

The four days of talks between Mirzoyan and Bayramov took place out of the view of media in a secure State Department facility in Arlington, a suburb of the US capital.

Ahead of the talks, a US official said they wanted the sides to sit down together and the primary aim was to move toward normalizing relations.

Blinken praised the foreign ministers for their leadership.

"None of this is easy, but the commitment, the determination to move forward to deal with the remaining challenging issues is real," he said.

"The last mile of any marathon is always the hardest. We know that," he added.

"But the United States is here to continue to help both of our friends cross the finish line."

He said he had proposed the two ministers return to their capitals "to share with their governments the perspective that, with additional goodwill, flexibility and compromise, an agreement is within reach."

Earlier this week, however, Russia said there was "no alternative" to a deal it signed with the two warring countries in 2020.

"For the moment, there is no other legal basis that would help a resolution. There is no alternative to these trilateral documents," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday.

pmh/sw

Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal ‘within reach’, Blinken says

May 5 2023
 5 May 2023

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is ‘within reach’, following the conclusion of four days of negotiations in Washington.

Blinken, who mediated talks, stated on Friday that ‘progress’ had been made despite ‘differences on key issues’, a sentiment echoed by official statements from both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

On Thursday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that they had yet to agree on an international mechanism to guarantee the security of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians or the format of dialogue between Stepanakert and Baku.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov kickstarted this round of negotiations with a meeting with Blinken on Monday.

The negotiations were the biggest talks aimed at normalising relations between the two countries since the blockade of the Lachin Corridor began in mid-December. They included meetings with Blinken and Jake Sullivan, US President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser.

The two countries discussed the delimitation and demarcation of their shared borders and the rights and security of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian population.

Late last year, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on clarifying their borders based on the 1991 Almaty Declaration. No progress had been made since then. 

The United States has repeatedly called on Azerbaijan to restore regular traffic through the Lachin Corridor, as Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh appear to remain almost entirely cut off from the outside world.

In late April, Azerbaijan installed a checkpoint at the entrance of the corridor in violation of the November 2020 ceasefire agreement, which stipulates that the Lachin Corridor should fall under the control of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Yerevan appeared somewhat dissatisfied with the outcome of the negotiations, with Yerevan-based political analyst Tigran Grigoryan describing the talks as a ‘setback’ with no joint statement signed, ‘as there probably was an expectation that at least something would be signed’.

In an interview with RFE/RL, Grigoryan said that a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan would only be possible if Armenia ‘abandons’ its position on key issues, such as the establishment of direct communication channels between Baku and Stepanakert.

Natig Jafarli, an economist and one of the leaders of Azerbaijan’s ReAl Party, appeared more optimistic, saying that peace could be achieved.

‘The final stage of such negotiations is always very difficult’, wrote Jafarli on Facebook.

He speculated that President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan would likely come up with a framework agreement on the sidelines of the upcoming European Political Community Summit in Moldova.

On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova announced that Moscow planned to host its own tripartite meeting with Yerevan and Baku.

Zakharova stated that it was important for Moscow to ‘inquire about the process of [the Washington] negotiations from the direct participants’.

She said that Yerevan and Baku had already agreed to the meeting and that the dates would be announced later. 

On Thursday, Pashinyan confirmed that he would visit Moscow next week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia, which has long spearheaded mediation efforts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, has been dismissive of Western mediation in the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict.

Earlier this year, Moscow also denounced the establishment of a European civilian monitoring mission in Armenia, instead offering a CSTO alternative to the mission, which Yerevan appeared to brush aside.

 For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.

https://oc-media.org/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-within-reach-blinken-says/

Turkish Press: Türkiye wants ‘full normalization’ of ties with Armenia: Parliament speaker

Turkey – May 5 2023
Türkiye wants ‘full normalization’ of ties with Armenia: Parliament speaker

Turkish parliament speaker meets Armenian counterpart on sidelines of Parliamentary Assembly of Black Sea Economic Cooperation meeting

The Turkish parliament speaker on Thursday met with his Armenian counterpart and said that Ankara wants “full normalization” of ties with Yerevan.


Mustafa Sentop and Alen Simonyan held a closed-door meeting on the sidelines of the 61st General Assembly of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC).


"We will continue to support the PABSEC work in the strongest way from now on," Sentop told Simonyan.


Noting that Türkiye desires the establishment of good neighborly relations in its region, Sentop said: "Our aim in our normalization process with Armenia is essentially to realize this desire."


He added it is necessary to avoid steps that will harm the normalization process.


About the inauguration of the "Nemesis Monument" in the Armenian capital Yerevan, Sentop said it is an "unacceptable development that openly glorifies terrorism and makes terrorists heroic."


The monument honors perpetrators of assassinations against Ottoman and Azerbaijani officials in the early 1920s.


"The opening of this monument has created a serious disturbance in Türkiye. I think that we look at this issue as a very sensitive issue, that we will not accept the glorification of terrorism in any way and that such events will negatively affect good neighborly relations," he added.


Sentop said that the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan as soon as possible is of great importance for comprehensive normalization in the region, adding: "Such a development will start a new period of opportunity and cooperation for our region, and Armenia will also benefit from it like all the countries in the region."


For his part, Simonyan said that Armenia approaches relations with Türkiye in a "constructive" way and added the opening of the monument was not related to state policy and that no deputies from the government attended the opening ceremony.


"No deputies representing the government were present at that ceremony. Those deputies are the ones representing the opposition and they criticize us for taking a step in this (normalization) process. We anticipate that there will be many obstacles and difficulties on this path, but we have to go through them so that we can reach a conclusion," he added.


Simonyan also said that they want peace with Azerbaijan and want to sign a peace agreement with Baku.


Meanwhile, Sentop separately met with his Montenegrin counterpart Danijela Djurovic, Morocco’s Rachid Talbi Alami, and Serbian parliament speaker Vladimir Orlic on the sidelines of the meeting.

Turkis Press: ‘Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Armenia normalization to bring new progress’

DAILY SABAH
Turkey – May 5 2023

If the countries in the Caucasus choose to invest in peace, it will open new opportunities in the region, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Thursday.

In an article for TRT World, Akar said, "Hopefully, reversing historical enmities will pave the way for lasting friendship and cooperation."

"However, we must be mindful of the delicate situation at hand. While the conflict is currently frozen, the threat of falling back into hostilities grows the longer it takes to hammer out a deal," he said.

Akar said two issues have prevented Ankara and Yerevan from developing normal ties since Armenia's independence from the Soviet Union. One was "the war in 1992 over Karabakh and the consequent occupation, in violation of international law, of a substantial amount of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia."

"The other obstacle is the unresolved differing perspectives on the historic events of 1915 that led to the deaths of both Armenians and Muslims in the final years of the Ottoman Empire," he said.

While the first one has more or less been resolved, with Azerbaijan regaining its lands in 2020 after three decades of Armenian occupation, the second one "has proven far more difficult to surmount, as it is a deeply emotional and sensitive topic for both sides," said Akar.

Türkiye is keen to resolve this issue and called on Armenia in 2005 to open its national archives and establish a joint committee of historians to research the events of 1915, said Akar, adding "Türkiye has already opened its national archives to international scrutiny, but Armenia still keeps its archives closed and refuses to respond to our call."

"During World War I, the Ottoman Empire was attacked by Russia on its eastern front, emboldening Armenian nationalists to take up arms and engage in acts of violence against Muslims, including attacks on Muslim villages and civilians. These acts have been documented and acknowledged by historians as well as by Western military missions at the time," he said.

He also said that American Gen. James Guthrie Harbord's report on the events of that time "also documented the atrocities committed by Armenians, who did not constitute a majority in any region of the Ottoman lands, against other subjects of the empire."

"This is not to disregard the massive humanitarian crises that took place during this period. President (Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan back in 2014 – then as the prime minister – expressed his condolences to the descendants of the Armenians who lost their lives in that period," Akar said.

Türkiye’s position on the events of 1915 is that the deaths of Armenians in eastern Anatolia took place when some sided with invading Russians and revolted against Ottoman forces. A subsequent relocation of Armenians resulted in numerous casualties.

Ankara objects to the presentation of these incidents as "genocide," describing them as a tragedy in which both sides suffered casualties.

Akar said that Türkiye remains steadfast in its belief that the Turkish and Armenian people, who have a long history of living in tolerance and peace, can establish relations based on friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation, despite the challenges.

"If the countries in the region and beyond choose to invest in peace, the political and economic dividends will be high for the entire region. Türkiye would like to see third countries – including its allies in the West – either help usher in this new understanding or be at least wary of efforts to politicize a historical controversy and perpetuate hostilities," he added.

On the other side, regarding the ongoing tensions between Baku and Yerevan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on the same day that direct talks between his country and Armenia are the best way for achieving a peace agreement.

"I believe that direct negotiations between the two countries will be more useful and necessary. I think we should continue to move in this direction if, of course, Armenia is also ready for this," he said, speaking at an international conference in the city of Shusha on Wednesday.

Aliyev said that Armenia, now more openly than some of its friends in the West, recognizes Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and it only needs to express that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan as it has already done on paper.

"The Alma-Ata Declaration actually delineated and recognized as administrative and official the borders of the former republics of the USSR. This means that they (Armenians) have already agreed that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. And I recently said that they just need to say the last word. They said "A." Now they should have said "B." They should say what I said, that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. I am waiting for that. I hope that time will come," he said.

Aliyev admitted that there are some sensitive issues in relations with the U.S. concerning the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, but for the rest, "the bilateral agenda is very wide."

Relations between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been tense since 1991 when the Armenian military illegally occupied Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan and seven adjacent regions.

Clashes erupted on Sept. 27, 2020, with the Armenian Army attacking civilians and Azerbaijani forces, violating several humanitarian cease-fire agreements. During the 44-day conflict, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and around 300 settlements and villages that Armenia had occupied for almost 30 years.

The fighting ended with a Russian-brokered agreement on Nov. 10, 2020, which was seen as a victory for Azerbaijan and a defeat for Armenia. However, the cease-fire has been violated several times since then.

Turkish Press: Azerbaijan’s president says direct talks with Armenia best way to achieve peace agreement

Turkey – May 5 2023
Azerbaijan’s president says direct talks with Armenia best way to achieve peace agreement

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said direct talks between his country and Armenia are the best way for achieving a peace agreement.


"I believe that direct negotiations between the two countries will be more useful and necessary. I think we should continue to move in this direction if, of course, Armenia is also ready for this," he said, speaking at an international conference in the city of Shusha on Wednesday.


Aliyev said that Armenia now more openly than some of its friends in the West recognizes Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and it only needs to express that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan as it has already done on paper.


"The Alma-Ata Declaration actually delineated and recognized as administrative and official the borders of the former republics of the USSR. This means that they (Armenians) have already agreed that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. And I recently said that they just need to say the last word. They said "A." Now they should have said "B." They should say what I said, that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. I am waiting for that. I hope that time will come," he said.


Aliyev admitted that there are some sensitive issues in relations with the US concerning the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, but for the rest, "the bilateral agenda is very wide."


Turning to energy cooperation with foreign countries, he said there are negotiations on increasing the volume of Kazakh oil supplies through Azerbaijan, which has the capacity for this.


The president noted that oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline may lead to problems with the quality of fuel, since Kazakh oil differs from Azeri light crude, noting that as an alternative, the Baku-Supsa Pipeline may be used for these purposes.


Aliyev also said that Azerbaijan is working on increasing gas supplies to Europe, and if the necessary infrastructure is built in time, supplies may start this year.


He also expects deeper integration with Central Asia in the future, not only in energy projects, but also in other sectors.


Aliyev praised the cooperation with Central Asian states within the Organization of Turkic States, urging to turn it into a global player, which will be beneficial for all its participants.


– Relations with Iran


Speaking on relations with Iran, Aliyev said Azerbaijan does not want problems with any countries, particularly with its neighbors.


However, when video cameras were set up on the Lachin-Khankendi road, they spotted the movement of Iranian trucks to regions of Karabakh, which is illegal because Iran recognizes Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh, he said.


The president said Azerbaijan expects from Iran the same attitude that Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan shows.


"These three countries did not actually have diplomatic relations with Armenia because of the occupation. Therefore, people thought that it would be natural if Iran were among these three countries and demonstrated solidarity," he said.


Another affair that overshadows relations between Baku and Tehran is the killing of an employee of the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran's capital, said Aliyev.


"For 40 minutes (of the attack), there were no police, no employees of the local security service, no one," he stressed.


The president said he personally made a decision to close the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran because for him, the lives and safety of people are of utmost importance.


Now relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are at their lowest level, and it is very difficult to predict whether they will remain at this level, deteriorate further, or improve, he said.


According to Aliyev, if Tehran proposes normalization, Baku will be ready to make this step only when its demands are fulfilled.


"If no, then no. Again, it wasn't our choice. But everyone in Iran, all segments of the establishment, should finally understand that the language of threats and terror does not work with Azerbaijan.”

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/azerbaijans-president-says-direct-talks-with-armenia-best-way-to-achieve-peace-agreement-3664026

‘Tangible progress’ in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks: U.S.

The Hindu
India – May 5 2023

05:44 am | Updated 05:44 am IST – WASHINGTON

AP

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that Armenia and Azerbaijan have made “tangible progress” in U.S.-hosted peace talks between the two former Soviet republics that have repeatedly clashed over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The four-day negotiating session did not produce a peace agreement, but Blinken said he believed a deal could be “within sight, within reach” and praised the two sides for coming together to try to find common ground.

He said reaching an agreement would be "not only historic but would be profoundly in the interests of the people of Azerbaijan and Armenia and would have very positive effects even beyond their two countries.”

The closed-door discussions were held far from the media spotlight at the State Department’s Foreign Service Institute in northern Virginia. The Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers, who led their delegations, did not speak at the closing ceremony.

U.S. engagement in the conflict could be seen as a challenge to Russia’s influence in an area it regards as being within its sphere of influence. Although Russia brokered the last significant deal between the two sides and now maintains troops in Nagorno-Karabakh, it has been more recently preoccupied by the conflict in Ukraine. And, while Blinken spoke of progress, there was no sign that a peace deal was at hand.

The mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is smaller than the U.S. state of Delaware, has significant cultural importance to both Armenians and Azeris.

It had a substantial degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan when it was part of the Soviet Union. As the USSR deteriorated, Armenian separatist unrest broke out, later turning into a full-scale war after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Most of the Azeri population was driven out by the end of the fighting in 1994. Ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia took control not only of Nagorno-Karabakh itself but of sizable surrounding Azerbaijani areas.

For the next quarter-century, Nagorno-Karabakh was a “frozen conflict,” with Armenian and Azerbaijani forces facing off across a no-man’s land and occasional clashes. In September 2020, Azerbaijan launched a full-scale assault to take the region. The fierce fighting lasted six weeks.

The war ended with a Russia-brokered armistice under which Azerbaijan regained control of parts of Nagorno-Karabakh and all the surrounding territory previously occupied by Armenians. Russia sent a peacekeeping force of 2,000 troops to maintain order, including ensuring that the so-called Lachin Corridor road that connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia remains open.

In mid-December last year, Azeris claiming to be environmental activists began blocking the road, saying they were protesting illegitimate mining by Armenians. Armenia contends the protests are orchestrated by Azerbaijan.

In turn, Azerbaijan alleges that Armenians have used the corridor to transport land mines into Nagorno-Karabakh in violation of the armistice terms.

Last month, at least seven soldiers were killed in clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. Armenia claimed a sniper killed one of its soldiers near the village of Sotk. Azerbaijan denied that and said Armenians opened fire with small arms on its forces, who returned fire.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly alleged that Armenians have used the Lachin Corridor to bring weapons and ammunition into Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkish Press: Azerbaijan says progress on draft peace treaty with Armenia achieved at talks in US

Anadolu Agency
Turkey – May 5 2023
Elena Teslova  

MOSCOW

Azerbaijan said on Thursday that progress on some articles of a future peace treaty with Armenia was achieved at talks in Washington.

The sides, however, did not find common ground on some key issues, a Foreign Ministry statement said.

"The ministers and their accompanying delegation members reached a mutual agreement on some articles of the draft bilateral agreement on peace and establishment of interstate relations, but at the same time recognized that positions on some key issues still diverge," it said.

The White House on Wednesday welcomed the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, who engaged in a four-day negotiating session since Sunday.

Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, said on Twitter that it was "good to host" Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan at the White House, adding that he welcomed the "progress Armenia & Azerbaijan have made in talks," encouraging "continued dialogue."

Relations between the two former Soviet republics have been tense since 1991 when the Armenian military occupied Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions.

Most of the territory was liberated by Baku during a war in 2020 fall, which ended after a Russian-brokered peace agreement and opened the door to normalization.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-says-progress-on-draft-peace-treaty-with-armenia-achieved-at-talks-in-us/2889988

Armenia’s Pashinyan To Visit Moscow Next Week – Press Office

May 5 2023

 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Thursday in Prague announced his plans to visit Moscow next week, the press office of the Armenian government said

YEREVAN (UrduPoint News / Sputnik – 05th May, 2023) Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Thursday in Prague announced his plans to visit Moscow next week, the press office of the Armenian government said.

Pashinyan is in Prague for a two-day official visit to the Czech Republic to meet with the country's top officials. The Armenian prime minister also attended the Prague Centre for Transatlantic Relations, a research center, where he announced his plans during the discussion on the topic of "Armenia's democracy in the troubled region: Security and stability needs.

"

"The prime minister has just announced that he will visit Moscow next week," the press office said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pashinyan discussed the situation in the conflict-torn Nagorno-Karabakh region during a phone conversation in late April. Then, the leaders confirmed the importance of strict compliance with the agreements of the leaders of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh and agreed to continue contacts.

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/armenias-pashinyan-to-visit-moscow-next-week-1686986.html

Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan disagree in Washington, but US Secretary of State optimistic

May 5 2023
  • JAMnews
  • Baku-Yerevan

Armenia-Azerbaijan talks in Washington

From May 1-4 talks were held in Washington between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. This was the longest round of negotiations between Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov. No joint statement was signed, however, with the parties limiting themselves to a joint press release:

“Ministers and their teams have made progress in mutual understanding on some articles of the draft bilateral agreement “On peace and the establishment of interstate relations”, while positions on some key issues still diverge.”

But Blinken was optimistic in his assessment:

“I hope that both ministers, like me, believe that a peace agreement is not far off, and it will provide a lasting peace for the peoples of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This peace will have a great impact not only on the life of the two peoples, but a regional and more global impact. It’s tough, but the desire to move forward is real, and as I mentioned we have made significant progress over the past few days. It seems that a final agreement is not far off, and we are determined to reach this agreement.”

Later, in an official press release from the State Department, the following addendum appeared:

“Both Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed in principle with certain conditions and better understand each other’s positions on unresolved issues. We invited ministers to return to their capitals to share with their governments the view that, with additional goodwill, flexibility and compromise, an agreement is within reach. They will continue to enjoy the full support and involvement of the United States in their efforts to secure a lasting peace.”


  • Armenian-Azerbaijani talks in Washington, but what comes next?
  • “The language of threats and terror does not work with Azerbaijan” – Ilham Aliyev
  • Consequences of the ongoing blockade in Nagorno-Karabakh

The Washington Marathon is over, I think with less than the expected results for the mediators. I am convinced that there was an expectation that at least a joint statement would be signed, but, as expected, progress on the most important issues could not be achieved:

on the Baku-Stepanakert direct talks mechanism and various views of the parties regarding it,
lack of agreement on maps and
lack of agreement on guarantees or mechanisms for the peace agreement.
Despite Secretary Blinken’s optimistic comments, I have no idea how the parties can reach agreement on these three key issues. Especially with regard to direct negotiations.”

“Aliyev is trying to cancel the negotiation process mediated by America,” Azerbaijani expert Tatevik Hayrapetyan said of a recent interview given by the President of Azerbaijan.

“As expected, the Washington round of Mirzoyan-Bayramov talks turned out to be ineffectual. I think that the negotiations in Washington were doomed to such an outcome for at least two reasons:

1) the Armenian-Azerbaijani institution of direct dialogue cannot work effectively, if only because there is a power imbalance between Yerevan and Baku, where Azerbaijan is trying to impose its entire agenda on Yerevan;

2) we may like or dislike Russia’s policy, but it is obvious that without the participation of Moscow it is impossible to achieve a resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Russia is not only the main moderator in the South Caucasus, a key mediator in this conflict, but also, in fact, a party and participant in this conflict, which also follows from the logic of the November 9 [2020] tripartite statement on the cessation of hostilities in Karabakh.

Of course, it does not follow from what has been said that the Moscow round of talks will be crowned with success. In general, it is difficult to imagine the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations without consolidated international efforts in this direction. And those cannot be in the conditions of a global conflict between Russia and the West, international chaos.

This situation, of course, creates new risks for the security of Armenia, such as the expulsion of Armenians from Artsakh.”

The Prime Minister of Armenia talked about the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

“A statement of the persistence of differences on key issues means that Aliyev is still firmly resisting, hoping that the Kremlin, after the meeting in Washington, will arrange another “St. Petersburg”, as it was after Vienna in 2016, put pressure on Yerevan, help Baku in once again slipping out from under American pressure, after which he will give another go-ahead to lawlessness in the interests of Moscow and Baku.

And this means that Yerevan MUST prevent this.

And this means leaving Moscow alone with its beloved Baku, thereby contributing to the consolidation of pressure on Baku, bringing its positions closer to Washington and Brussels.

But we are told from Prague that “a visit to Moscow is planned” [during an official visit to the Czech Republic, Pashinyan himself announced this].

Why a visit to Moscow?

I want to warn you: your incomprehensibly beloved Moscow, where you are going to go, went over your agent Serzhik [former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan] and did not spare him. Don’t think that it will spare you.

In short, you should not crawl back into this hole. Theres nothing for us there.

Meanwhile, what is called the peace agenda is a stubborn struggle for peace against the enemies of the world, and above all, against the aspirations of Moscow, which is the main enemy of the world.”

Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov explained the lack of a documented agreement after the talks in America with Russian pressure on Yerevan:

“At the talks in Washington, Armenia balked at its demands and frustrated the initialing of the agreement with Azerbaijan. The continuation of negotiations in Moscow was announced. From there, the encouragement followed. The repair of the main gas pipeline in the Stavropol Territory has been completed and gas supplies to Armenia interrupted on May 1 have been restored.”

The MP also expects “an encouraging gesture from the Kremlin in the form of the beginning of the passage of Armenian trucks with agricultural products through the Lars crossing, which was stopped during the ministerial meetings in Washington.”

In Aliyev’s interview with state television, the Azerbaijani President talked about issues related to resolving the conflict between his country and Armenia

The mountain gave birth to a mouse. This is how Azerbaijani political scientist Farhad Mammadov summed up the talks in Washington.

“Progress… finish line… exhausted Blinken… And that’s it?! And all from the inconsistency of the position of the Americans themselves! At one time, they did not point to the occupier, did not apply sanctions against Armenia, but, on the contrary, supported it financially and politically.

There are topics on which there is no common understanding. Then Baku will take more steps to finalize it before the next meeting. The diplomatic battle will continue in Russia, it will be interesting…

The Americans need Azerbaijan to give up the enclaves… as I understand it from Pashinyan’s statement made in Prague – that’s exactly what… to help Pashinyan retain power…

And the Karabakh Armenians will remain in limbo…” he added.

Azerbaijani expert on conditions for peace – and why expectations of concluding an agreement are unjustified

Former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov noted that the negotiations were difficult.

“At best, they could sign some text. Because, logically, after the meeting of foreign ministers in Washington, the heads of state should meet to sign the prepared document. After such a long meeting, a meeting of the leaders of the countries is expected. It is sensed that the United States intends to put a political end to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, because the Americans put on the negotiating table the question of a fundamental solution to the problems of the post-conflict period.”


Podcast: Is the End in Sight in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict?

May 5 2023
  • Alexander
    Gabuev
  • Anna
    Ohanyan
  • Thomas
    de Waal
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Tom de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Anna Ohanyan, a nonresident senior scholar at Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia program, to discuss developments in and around the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

As the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be inching toward a resolution, is the new political reality accepted in Armenia? What does Azeri President Ilham Aliyev hope to achieve? How will the failure of Russian peacekeepers to intervene in recent developments affect the relationship between Moscow and Yerevan? Is the rivalry between competing Western and Russian resolution tracks an asset or a hindrance? And how will an eventual resolution impact on the political systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Listen to the Podcast at the link: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89698