Category: 2023

Armenian public debt

Armenia’s public debt was more than $10 billion last year, but the Prime Minister stated that it was “a light debt burden”. Economist Narek Karapetyan, commenting on Nikol Pashinyan’s statement, agreed that in 2022 there were indeed “good dynamics”.

“True, we have exceeded 10 billion, but over the past year the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased from 60.3% to 46.7%,” Karapetyan said. According to him, in developing countries this figure is on average 60%.

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The Prime Minister stated that the country’s debt burden compared to the country’s gross domestic product is considered “light”. Nikol Pashinyan also stressed that the ratio of public debt to GDP in 2022 has significantly decreased to 46.7%.

“Countries are divided into those with light, medium and heavy debt. Thanks to economic growth, Armenia has again found itself among the countries with a small debt,” the prime minister said.

According to him, by reducing the long burden, the country has gained economic stability:

“But it’s not about debt, it’s about how we use debt to increase the country’s economic growth potential.”

Pashinyan believes that the amounts raised as debt should be directed to capital expenditures.

Economist Narek Karapetyan, an expert at the Amberd Analytical Center, considers the amount of debt to be “acceptable”, including in the context of the country’s legislation, and says that there are fiscal rules that determine the debt acceptable for the country and what is beyond acceptable limits.

According to him, three versions of the response to the debt/GDP ratio have been established — in the case of 40, 50 and 60%. And for each case, the appropriate measures that the state needs to take are indicated. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank consider debt above 70% high risk.

“When the debt exceeds 40%, we must have a certain spending policy, at least make as much capital expenditure as we attract new debt. It is assumed that in this way the debt will create assets of the appropriate volume, which will allow financing the same debt in the future,” Karapetyan believes.

After 50%, the government must contain current spending. This means that wages and pensions should rise in proportion to GDP growth in recent years. The rules get tougher after the 60% line. Then the government is obliged to develop a debt reduction program for the next five years.

According to Karapetyan, the relief of Armenia’s long burden is the result of more positive than expected economic changes and the strengthening of the national currency.

He notes that in addition to the debt burden, risk indicators are the interest rate and maturity, the conditions for attracting debt in general, and the comparability of the interest rate of debt and economic growth:

“The interest rate of debt must be below the rate of economic growth in order for it to be manageable in the medium and long term. When the interest rate of debt is lower than economic growth, it will decrease automatically.”

Commenting on the positive developments in the Armenian economy against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Karapetyan said that there has been a huge influx of funds — about $1 billion — but believes it was spent inefficiently.

“The money came, but the capital was not created. Banks transferred part of this amount to their foreign accounts. The other part remained in the Armenian economy as additional liquidity for banks. Part was invested in the government bond market. Most of these funds did not go directly to the real sector of the economy. We have not been able to fully realize these funds.”

According to Karapetyan, both the appropriate infrastructure and the capabilities of the economy, the ability to absorb investments, are important:

“Our economy does not have enough capacity to absorb significant investment, although the financial capacity may be the same as last year.”

Assessment of disability status

In the process of assessing disabilities, people in Armenia face many problems — from discrimination to outright corruption.

The NGO “Agenda for the Protection of the Rights of People with Disabilities” has been undertaking a comprehensive support program for five months, the main objective of which is to protect people’s rights during the entire disability assessment process.

Mushegh Hovsepyan, chairman of the NGO, believes that “[d]epriving people of their disability status, changing this decision by changing the assessment system, is simply fraud.”

Starting February 1, disability assessment in Armenia has been carried out according to a new system — according to an applicant’s fundamental capabilities.

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“Although our organization started operating not so long ago, it is already quite well known among people with disabilities. Most often, we are contacted on issues related to medical and social expertise.

We have undertaken a program to assist people with disabilities in the course of determining their condition in order to better coordinate this aspect of our activities. The program started in November last year, although before that we consulted everyone who contacted us.

However, to monitor the situation, to accompany people with disabilities with representatives of our organization during the assessment of their functional capabilities or the participation of a lawyer in legal proceedings in their cases, additional professional and financial resources were required. We received this opportunity as part of our new program.”

“As part of the assistance program, we are creating a system of services that will support a person during the entire process of assessing their health status. Moreover, assistance begins even before the start of the assessment process itself and ends only after it is completed. We provide advice, legal aid, and professional medical assessment.

When a person is just about to submit their case for disability assessment and is not sure whether they should enter this process in their particular case, we provide advice to make this decision as well.

We also support people at subsequent stages, when, for example, they doubt whether the group of disability or the degree of functionality is correctly defined. At this stage, we also provide advice on a possible appeal against the decision of the evaluation committee.

In any case, even when our specialists do not consider the decision of the commission to be incorrect or biased, if a citizen intends to appeal it or go to court, we provide all the necessary services, since this is his right.

Our experts help to submit cases for reassessment, to provide justifications. They accompany the beneficiaries of the program in the appeal process itself, helping to clearly and objectively state their point of view and complaint. And in cases where a person decides to go to court, we provide the services of a lawyer.

Since the launch of the program, we have helped more than 150 citizens. There was a case when, after the presentation of the arguments of our experts about the violation of the rights of a citizen, they were restored at the pre-trial stage, the case did not reach the court.

I can say that with our participation, the likelihood that the evaluation commission will make a decision in favor of the citizen increases.”

“The process of medical and social examination and assessment of functionality contains risks, although it is carried out according to clearly defined criteria. For many of our beneficiaries, the restoration of violated rights becomes a difficult process, since they have no idea on the basis of which this or that decision is made regarding their lives.

Meanwhile, when there are experts next to a person, a structure that he can trust, he feels more confident, understands that his rights will be protected. This feeling of security is very important for a person. So even before the start of the evaluation process itself, we prepare those who contact us about how the process can proceed, what should be emphasized.

It turns out that they are to some extent ready to independently defend their interests. On the other hand, the relevant authorities know that the assistance service is operating, people can contact our experts and get reliable information.

Of course, this is also in the interests of state bodies. There have been cases where the commission made reasoned, justified decisions which, however, raised doubts among citizens. But after consulting our experts, having received the same answer from an impartial institution, people were convinced that their rights had not been violated by the state.

“The disability assessment process has been considered the most corrupt for many years. There were many stories in the media about this and criminal cases have been initiated.

I cannot say that this program will neutralize all corruption risks, because corruption is, in fact, an example of “mutually beneficial cooperation.”

In order to break this cycle, at least one of the parties must be convinced that it can advance its interests within the law.

For this reason we plan to launch another program in the near future, with the help of which we will try to deepen knowledge about corruption among persons with disabilities and their families, as well as among employees of the system.

I can say with confidence that people’s awareness of their rights influences their decision about possible involvement in corruption schemes.”

“Among those who contact us, there are many who received disability status years ago, but today they are deprived of their status after a change in the procedure for assessing their condition. But changing the order or tools for evaluating functionality cannot become the basis for making deliberately unfair decisions.

At the moment we have several similar cases concerning, in particular, mental health. We are dealing with the case of a soldier who has post-traumatic stress disorder, visual hallucinations, severe pain due to a traumatic brain injury. Another citizen has a delusional disorder, which naturally affects his ability to work. And they are both being deprived of disability status.

Approximately the same picture emerges in the case of those who have the status of a “child with a disability” when they turn 18 and need to be re-examined. According to our assessment, in these cases many people are also unfairly deprived of disability groups on grounds that do not comply with the law.

In fact, depriving people of their disability status, justifying this decision by changing the system for assessing their condition, is fraud.

People often do not even realize what changes are being discussed or what grounds the government has provided for making such decisions.

Thus a negative attitude is formed towards the new disability assessment system based on functional capabilities, while in some cases it is simply about willful decisions.”

“We receive many complaints that the process of determining disability is accompanied by an inadequate attitude towards citizens undergoing examination by experts and members of the assessment commission.

One of the biggest problems people face when starting a disability determination process is disrespectful attitude, rude language, incomprehensible justifications for decisions, or refusal to comment or explain them in detail.

As part of this program, we plan to organize courses for specialists involved in the assessment of functionality. Their main goal will be to develop communication skills with people with disabilities. Most importantly, people with disabilities will help develop the communication skills of experts and civil servants. That is, they themselves will advise them on how best to contact.

https://jam-news.net/assessment-of-disability-status/