Category: 2024

India – Jan 5 2024

After the Chinese incursions in Doklam and Galwan worsened the India-China relationship and the involvement of extra-regional actors like Turkey in the Kashmir conflict, India’s foreign policy vision, approach, and strategic calculus are expanding beyond South Asia.

India’s outreach to Armenia, a faraway country in the South Caucasus, is part of this new change. The October 2021 visit of S Jaishankar, India’s External Affairs Minister, to Yerevan is historic because it was the first such visit of the Indian foreign minister to Armenia in the last 30 years.

Before this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan on the sidelines of the 74th UNGA in New York, seeking Yerevan’s support in finalising a trade arrangement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU).

In the last three years, India has emerged as a major weapons supplier to Armenia. These big-ticket defense deals include the sale of Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, a USD 40 million contract of SWATI weapon-locating radars, ammunition anti-tank missiles, and 155 mm artillery guns.

The author’s interlocutors in India’s Ministry of External Affairs informed that Armenia is interested in more defense deals, including drones and counter-drone systems, loitering munitions, and mid-range surface-to-air missiles.

In October 2022, Armenia’s defense minister, Suren Papikyan, visited the defense expo in New Delhi and met his counterpart Rajnath Singh. In Sept 2022, both countries signed MoUs in culture, digital infrastructure, and renewable energy to promote business ties at the India-Armenia Conference 2022 in Bengaluru. The delegates explored the trade and investment potential in pharma, agriculture, information technology, film-city, and tourism.

Additionally, one can witness a major uptick in think tank-level cooperation between India and Armenia. Most recently, the author represented Usanas Foundation, India’s premier foreign policy think tank, at the Yerevan Dialogue Series organised by the Prime Minister’s Office of Armenia, in collaboration with Armenia’s top-level think tank, Applied Policy Research Institute (APRI).

APRI will also organise the next dialogue series with the Observer Research Foundation, India’s top-level foreign policy think tank, and the prestigious Raisina Dialogue organiser in partnership with the Ministry of External Affairs.

All these developments come on the solid bedrock of robust cultural and historical ties between the two countries that have existed for centuries. The Armenian business community has lived in India for over four centuries. Kolkata has one of the oldest Armenian churches and a school. Armenia’s first constitution was drafted in Chennai.

Geopolitics behind strategic connectivity

Until the 2020 war, India more or less had a clear stand, backing Armenia against Azerbaijan’s territorial aggression. Turkey and Pakistan’s support of Azerbaijan made it all the more essential for India to support Armenia. In 2017, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan signed a trilateral ministers’ agreement to boost defense and strategic ties.

Notably, Azerbaijan has declared its support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue whereas Armenia supports India. Turkey-Pakistan relations are very old, going back to 1947. Turkey has always supported Pakistan, and after the abrogation of Kashmir’s special status in 2019, Turkey has emerged as a diehard proponent of Pakistan against India in the global propaganda war and multilateral institutions.

Under Erdogan’s Islamist leadership and Pan-Turkic ambitions, Ankara’s interest and support of Pakistan strengthened, and anti-India diatribes have become vitriolic. More recently, the author’s interlocutors have suggested that Erdogan’s private paramilitary force, SADAT, may be active in sending highly trained mercenaries to Kashmir.

In addition to counter-balance Turkey and Pakistan, India also looks at Armenia as a nodal point to expand its strategic and economic outreach to the South Caucasus.

New Delhi’s most critical interests in this region lie in the strategic connectivity projects. India’s interest in the International North-South Corridor (INSTC), of which Armenia is a part, is firmly rooted in its quest for land connectivity to Eurasia, Central Asia, and Europe through the Iranian plateau, otherwise blocked by Pakistan and Afghanistan.

With this intent, India aims to extend INSTC to Armenia, connecting Chabahar port in south east Iran to European and Eurasian markets. India and Iran have two options — railway lines connecting north western Iran to Russia or the Black Sea through Armenia’s Syunik province or via the Caspian coast through Azerbaijan.

Armenia is a natural choice for India because of Azerbaijan’s proximity to Pakistan and Turkey. Armenia is also keenly interested in INSTC. Yerevan announced an alternate road to Iran in May 2021 to connect Iranian ports to Georgian ports via Armenia. During the Indian foreign minister’s 2021 visit, Armenia also proposed a scheme allowing the transportation of Indian products to Russia and the Black Sea via Armenia. All these initiatives bring the INSTC closer to reality.

Given the above mentioned developments, it is reasonable to conclude that both countries are moving towards a robust strategic partnership. However, India’s relative silence or pessimism after the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 indicates a moderate decline in New Delhi’s enthusiasm and a sense of guarded optimism bordering on skepticism.

Perhaps, after Azerbaijan’s aggression and conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, India is reeling under a sense of insecurity about its investments and plans for strategic connectivity projects in this region. India may reconsider its aforesaid preference for the Syunik transit route because of the Zanzegur region which falls in it. Azerbaijan has made claims to Zanzegur corridor as it provides unimpeded accesses to its exclave of Nakhchivan. Given the revisionist intent of Azerbaijan and the recent attacks on mainland Armenia, these threats originating from Baku can not be underestimated. Hence, the prevailing instability and volatile security situation may dampen India’s enthusiasm for a transit route through Syunik.

Nevertheless, India faces a difficult choice. India is majorly invested in the Chabahar project and eyes INSTC as a critical connectivity project to obtain overland routes to Europe. Despite the hindrances owing to sanctions against Iran and Russia and major differences over the arbitration issues with Iran, India has finalised a ten-year contract with Iran for the use of Chabahar port.

India’s West Asia expert and former envoy to many Middle Eastern countries, Ambassador Anil Trigunayat said in a telephonic interview that after the Ukraine war, Russians have become very serious about the rapid execution of INSTC to gain access to Chabahar through the Indian Ocean, to counter the European sanctions.

India does not want to miss this opportunity. Trigunayat further said that if India shows lack of interest, China is likely to occupy that space as it already has strong ties with Russia and Iran, and India’s dependence is further accentuated by the declining prospects of the India-Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) after the Israel-Hamas war.

Hence, whether these vulnerabilities will compel India to explore the Azerbaijan route for INSTC in the backdrop of the Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan alliance or not remains a million-dollar question.

Worst-case scenario

In addition to the abovementioned factors, the increasing involvement of global powers in the South Caucasus can also impede the transformation of India-Armenia relationship into a strategic partnership.

After Russia’s lukewarm response to the war with Azerbaijan, there is a marked Armenian shift towards the US, which is making Moscow uncomfortable.

In the recent Russia-Ukraine war, India had to face tremendous pressure from the Western powers to abandon Russia. Given its aversion to alliances, New Delhi would avoid getting caught in another cold war front between the US and Russia.

Also, India’s strong ties with Israel, Iran’s arch-enemy, and Iran’s with China, India’s arch-enemy, will make it increasingly challenging for India to continue and further its involvement in Russia-Iran-led INSTC.

The worst-case scenario for India will be the passage of INSTC through Azerbaijan. Hence, it can be argued that in the prevailing uncertainty and instability in the South Caucasus, India will prefer to move ahead on a bilateral trajectory with Armenia, with a particular focus on defense deals and economic ties.

The writer is the founder and CEO of Usanas Foundation, a foreign policy and national security thinktank. A Cornell University grad in public affairs, and the author of Radicalisation in India: An Exploration. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/understanding-indias-armenia-outreach-amid-global-power-play-in-south-caucasus-13579412.html

Jan 5 2024

Washington (AFP) – The United States on Thursday added Azerbaijan to a watchlist on religious freedom, following fears for Christian heritage after the country seized back an ethnic Armenian enclave.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, releasing an annual index of designations, maintained all 12 countries that had been on the previous year's blacklist, including China, Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

In the sole change, Blinken added Azerbaijan to a watchlist, meaning it will join the blacklist, which carries potential sanctions, without improvements.

Energy-rich Azerbaijan, a frequent US partner, sent troops on September 19 into Nagorno-Karabakh and quickly achieved the surrender of Armenian separatist fores who had controlled the region for three decades.

In a recent recommendation to the State Department, the US Commission on International Religious Freedom pointed to concerns for the preservation of Christian religious sites in Nagorno-Karabakh, where virtually the entire population of 100,000 ethnic Armenians has fled to Armenia.

The commission also voiced alarm over regulations on all religious practice in the Shiite Muslim-majority but largely secular country under strongman President Ilham Aliyev, including a requirement that all religious groups be registered and their literature approved by an official body.

The commission, which is appointed by lawmakers but does not set US policy, was ignored by Blinken on another recommendation — blacklisting India.

The commission alleged incitement and a climate of impunity by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist government on rising attacks against religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Christians.

India has scoffed at the accusations and few had expected any action by the US government, which for years has sought warmer relations with New Delhi, seeing the fellow democracy as a bulwark against China.

Blinken in a statement noted that "significant violations of religious freedom also occur in countries that are not designated."

"Governments must end abuses such as attacks on members of religious minority communities and their places of worship," he said.

The "countries of particular concern" on the blacklist are China, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

Besides Azerbaijan, countries on the watchlist are Algeria, the Central African Republic, Comoros and Vietnam.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240104-us-puts-azerbaijan-on-religious-freedom-watchlist

Jan 5 2024

The United States on Thursday added Azerbaijan to a watchlist on religious freedom, following fears for Christian heritage after the country seized back an important enclave from Armenia.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, releasing an annual index of designations, maintained all 12 countries that had been on the previous year's blacklist, including China, Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

In the sole change, Blinken added Azerbaijan to a watchlist, meaning it will join the blacklist, which carries potential sanctions, without improvements.

Energy-rich Azerbaijan, a frequent U.S. partner, sent troops on Sept.19 into Nagorno-Karabakh and quickly achieved the surrender of Armenian separatist forces.

In a recent recommendation to the State Department, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom pointed to concerns for the preservation of Christian religious sites in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The commission, which is appointed by lawmakers but does not set U.S. policy, was ignored by Blinken on another recommendation — blacklisting India.

The commission alleged incitement and a climate of impunity by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist government on rising attacks against religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Christians.

India has scoffed at the accusations and few had expected any action by the U.S. government, which for years has sought warmer relations with New Delhi, seeing the fellow democracy as a bulwark against China.

Blinken in a statement noted that "significant violations of religious freedom also occur in countries that are not designated."

"Governments must end abuses such as attacks on members of religious minority communities and their places of worship," he said.

The "countries of particular concern" on the blacklist are China, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

Besides Azerbaijan, countries on the watchlist are Algeria, the Central African Republic, Comoros and Vietnam.

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-puts-azerbaijan-on-religious-freedom-watchlist-189384

Online Casino Reports

Jan 5 2024

Armenia's iGaming market is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by regulatory changes and a vision for a more inclusive and transparent future. The founder of SiGMA Group, Eman Pulis, has brought these changes to light during his recent visit to Armenia, highlighting the country's potential in the evolving gaming industry.

Jan 5 2024

After Azerbaijan’s latest offensive, the self-proclaimed autonomous republic was canceled and one hundred thousand inhabitants fled en masse, mostly to Armenia. Where “the situation is critical”, says the president of Caritas

Since January 1st, Nagorno Karabakh no longer exists. This land nestled in the mountains of the southern Caucasus, cradle of an ancient people of Armenian ethnicity and Christian faith, has been officially erased from the maps. And its people, after the extremely violent attack by the Azerbaijani army on September 19th, quickly abandoned their homes and belongings. All of it, apart from a few dozen elderly people who – they say – want to die where they have always lived, just like their ancestors, for generations.
“In a few days, over one hundred thousand people poured across the border: we tried to welcome them with dignity, but the situation is critical”, says the director of the Armenian Caritas Gagik Tarasyan. “Today, twenty thousand have managed to reach Russia or some European country, but the others are still here and will most likely stay in the long term.”
What is underway is only the latest, tragic act in the tormented story of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh – the ancient Armenian name of the area -, which has dragged on between conflicts and armed truces for decades. This region, which for centuries had managed to carve out an autonomy under the domination of Persians and Romans, Byzantines and Arabs, Turks, Tatars, Russians and Azerbaijanis, at the time of the Soviet Union became aoblast inserted into the socialist Republic of Azerbaijan, despite being 97% inhabited by Armenians. It was only with the perestrojka that its inhabitants asked for independence and annexation to Armenia. Serious tensions, pogroms and wars arose. The first (from 1992 to 1994) was won by the Armenians, but in the following years the conflict remained frozen and the negotiations inconclusive, until the Azeri offensive in autumn 2020 marked the defeat of the Karabakh forces and the loss of many districts, including the symbolic city of Sushi.
“That aggression caused, among serious violations of international law, more than 5,000 victims,” recalls Tarasyan. Which underlines: «The Trilateral Declaration on the ceasefire, signed on November 9, 2020 by the Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, the Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Vladimir Putin, provided among other things for the safety of the movement of citizens and goods through the Lachin corridor , the only road that guarantees the connection of Nagorno Karabakh with Armenia and the rest of the world.”

But things have gone very differently in the last year. «From December 12, 2022 until the attack last September, the Goris-Stepanakert highway, which crosses the Lachin corridor, was closed by Azerbaijan: for almost ten months, due to the blockade, all inhabitants, including 30 thousand children have suffered from the serious shortage of food, medicines, basic necessities, but also fuel and electricity.” It is these same people, already exhausted from the long period of isolation, who have fled en masse following the latest large-scale Azeri offensive, which on the first day of the attack alone caused 200 deaths and more than 400 injuries. To avoid a tragedy on a scale never seen before, local Armenian leaders had to accept surrender: the pact, agreed with Azerbaijani representatives and Russia, includes the complete disarmament of the self-defense forces and the dissolution of the enclave’s authorities. When, on September 24, the road to the outside world was finally reopened, it took just a few days for the inhabitants of Artsakh to leave their homeland en masse, fearing that in that very land, where culture is so deeply imprinted, the art and faith of the Armenian people, there is no more room for this people.
“Our family had to face the third forced displacement in a few years,” says Razmela, who with her husband and six children found refuge in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, thanks to the support of Caritas. “Until the 2020 war we lived in Avetaranoc, a village in the Askeran region, where we had a beautiful house and worked as farmers,” recalls the woman. «Then, the area was occupied by Azerbaijan and we fled to Armenia. Months later, we returned home to settle in Dahrav, where we bought a small house and renovated it with our savings: there we started a new livestock and agriculture business. We didn’t imagine that we would have to relive the terrible experience of being displaced.”

Instead, Razmela and her family had no choice. Together with their father-in-law – and also bringing their dog with them – nine of them traveled for 26 hours in an old Soviet-era car, until they reached Armenia again. «But this time we lost everything we had built over a lifetime – she sighs. We currently live in a tiny 20m2 apartment and my eldest son earns some money working in the construction sector, but unfortunately my husband has health problems and it is very difficult for me to find a job, so we survive thanks to the help of some humanitarian organisations” .

Since the beginning of the emergency, Caritas has mobilized to meet the enormous needs of refugees, integrating its interventions with those of the government – supported by funding from the European Union and countries such as the United States and Canada – and NGOs local and foreign. The director says: «In the first weeks we had to respond to basic needs, providing hot meals to over five thousand people, water, blankets and sheets, but also medical and psychological assistance and immediate shelter. Then, with the arrival of winter, we had to organize ourselves to meet the most vulnerable groups in particular, such as the elderly, children and people with disabilities: among other things, we help pay electricity bills and distribute voucher for use in supermarkets. Thanks to a project supported by Caritas Internationalis we are assisting around six thousand displaced people between Yerevan and the provinces of Syunik – on the border with Azerbaijan – and Ararat, where many have settled because the climate is milder”.

But after the initial phase of emergency reception will come the even more complex phase of sustainable integration, given that “many of these refugees are destined to remain in the long term”. The imperative, therefore, shifts towards “the creation of a reliable source of income, with support for employment and entrepreneurship, and the finding of adequate housing”. This is not an easy prospect: today refugees make up almost 3% of the entire Armenian population. «And even the local people, particularly in the North of the country, live in very precarious social conditions, not to mention the twenty thousand refugees from the previous conflict, who often still live in the container», underlines Tarasyan. The current surge in requests for housing, which adds to the effects of the arrival of thousands of Russians following the war in Ukraine, has caused house prices to rise, to the obvious discontent of the people.

«The massive influx of these desperate people from Artsakh – reflects the director of Caritas – is destined to have a far-reaching impact on the socio-economic landscape of the country, which is already extremely vulnerable for various reasons, especially the dependence on global factors outside its control, including climate change, supply chain disruptions and exchange rate fluctuations.”

And while the crisis of the displaced people of Nagorno Karabakh has taken a back seat in the awareness of the international community – and that of donors -, focused on the Ukrainian tragedy and the Middle East in flames, public opinion in Yerevan does not hide the discontent for the President Pashinyan’s choice to renounce a land that is symbolic of the Armenian collective memory. There is fear of the destruction of ancient monasteries, churches, cemeteries with their Khachkar, the traditional crosses carved in stone. The Azerbaijani president promised a “peaceful reintegration” with “equal rights and freedoms for all, regardless of faith”. But Aliyev’s words could not erase the image of him trampling the flag of Artsakh and raising that of Azerbaijan in the deserted capital Stepanakert, after renaming its main street in honor of Enver Pasha, one of the triumvirs who organized the genocide Armenian of 1915.

Lebanon  -  Jan 5 2024

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met Friday with head of the Catholicosate of the Great House of Cilicia, His Holiness Catholicos Aram I, in Antelias.

Mikati and Aram I discussed issues and challenges facing Lebanon, particularly the situation in the South of Lebanon, the presidential election, and the socio-economic crisis facing the country, the Armenian Church Catholicosate of Cilicia said.

The Armenian community is preparing to celebrate Christmas on January 6th.

Jan 5 2024